This is Quadratic Funding, an experimental market type.
Each entry will receive the square of the sum of sqrt(tips): an entry that gets 10 tips of 1 mana will receive 100 mana total, with the 90 extra mana coming from the matching pool. See this primer for more details.
There are two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know
What is the difference between love and the CFTC?
Money can't buy me love.This little piggy went to market and got a wolf migration forecast for the next 24 hoursAnd now the shipping forecast issued by Manifold Markets. Aella, Fair Isle, Destiny, Dogger. Storms, 4 to 6, occasionally seven. Poor, becoming very good later.
Why are prediction markets on the efficient market hypothesis always mispriced?
Everyone who could correct the market thinks there would be no money to be made from it, so they don't try to correct it.
Did you hear the rumor Nick Foles is placing superbowl bets on manifold? He was overheard talking about being long Hurts. 
Introducing Origami Markets, the evolution of Many-folds Markets!
Why do probabilities have a mass? If they didn't, we couldn't weigh how likely anything was.
How did the zealot answer when pressed to bet on her professed beliefs?
Man, I fold!Roses are red
Violets are blue
Markets are efficient
thanks to me and you
not
How many quadratic funders does it take to change a light bulb? None, they'll just match the funds to the person who can do it best!A prediction market creator, a prediction market trader, and a quadratic funder meet in a bar. The bartender asks the group: "What would everyone like to drink?"
The prediction market creator's instincts quickly took hold. "$10 of initial liquidity for a prediction market regarding what I should drink tonight" he cried loudly to the dozens of surprised bar attendees. The crowd murmured confusedly.
Then the quadratic funder shook his head disapprovingly. "My friend, there is a better way! Have you not read Vitalik's latest primer?" he turned his attention to the increasingly confused crowd. "Fellow enjoyers of this fine establishment" he bellowed, "please disregard my friend's market, which is sure to garner insufficient engagement due to poor incentives. I now offer you $200 of dispersable funds in a quadratic funding solution for drink proposals for my evening. Please provide ideas, and fellow party-goers can pay the idea providers trivial amounts and they will be well-compensated!"
The bartender, amidst supportive chanting from the irritated crowd (who at this point had suffered quite enough), grabbed the prediction market creator and the quadratic funder by their collars and guided them to the exit, where he roughly pushed them out into the bar entrance. "And STAY OUT!" he shouted.
The prediction market trader looked down sadly and pulled $500 out of his wallet. "Here's your payout, Mr. Bartender. But I still can't believe you predicted this turn of events in our bet earlier this morning. How did you know the bar crowd would turn against my friends like that?"
The bartender grinned and took off his hyper-realistic mask. It was Bryan Caplan that stood before him! "Base rates, my friend!" he exclaimed excitedly in a high voice, snatching up the money from the astonished trader. "After many years of interacting with prediction markets and QF enthusiasts, I've learned that insufferability is a core, insuppressible trait for this crowd. I make money every time!"
There are 2 morals to this story: (i) pick your drinking friends wisely, and (ii) never bet against Bryan Caplan!
Q. Why did the faithless Manifolder start participating in quadratic markets? A. Because they didn't believe in a higher power.This is a test of our newest market type, Quadratic Funding! Submit some jokes related to forecasting or markets, and we'll include the best ones in our next newsletter.
Unlike a Free Response market where you bet on which entries will be chosen, with quadratic funding, readers can directly send mana as a tip to their favorite jokesters. The quadratic funding mechanism will then match donations in a democratic way, with more popular jokes receiving more matching.
(Specifically, each joke will receive the square of the sum of sqrt(tips). E.g. a joke that gets 10 tips of 1 mana will receive 100 mana total, with the 90 extra mana coming from a matching pool. See WTF is QF or Vitalik Buterin's primer for more details!)
What's the intended use case for quadratic funding?
I love the idea, but my understanding is that quadratic funding is meant to allocate funds? M$ is great, but not (yet) useful for funding much other than market creation.
Seems like you might be able to do this with real money without getting in trouble??
Also seems like a great way of handling donations to charity and prizes for prediction competitions, if Manifold's still doing those.
I might want to use this market type, but not with the money allocated to each answer going to whoever suggested it. That works well for jokes, but not public goods funding, which is what QF is for. This is more like a democratically-allocated bounty.
@Austin True! I guess I just meant that people couldn't 'claim' it in the same way. I imagined it was being distributed by whoever set up the QF scheme. So I thought that just giving everything to the market creator and letting them distribute it would be best, but there are obvious problems with that! Having given it some more thought, this seems better. Maybe in the future someone who proposes an answer could nominate a user to receive the funds, but this is good enough for now (especially with Manifold's whole buyer-beware model that's already in place and working well enough).
After making some big bets that whiffed, I've started seeing a therapist. I need to feel more certain about the future.
Alt version: My friends were getting worried about how much money I was spending on Manifold, so they held an intervention. I stopped listening when they said that they were uncertain about my future.
@noumena
Why is Hollywood starting to pay more attention to Manifold?
Because it's super for casting!
This little piggy went to market and got accurate predictions on wolf movements in the next 24 hours.
Why are prediction markets on the efficient market hypothesis always mispriced?
Everyone who could correct the market thinks it must already be correct so they don't try to correct it.
And now the shipping forecasts issued by Manifold Markets on behalf of the Tweeting and Streaming agency. There are warnings of storms between Aella and Destiny. 4 to 6, occasionally seven. Poor, becoming very good later.
If I think of something funny fast enough I will be the first ever person to use this feature. Quick brain come up with a Joke!
@Austin I tried contributing Ṁ10 to the pool and it failed in the same way as when I tried to submit a joke
@NcyRocks @TimothyCurrie @MartinRandall @noumena @yaboi69 @ForrestTaylor -- Answer submission and funding should be fixed now. Please resubmit your jokes as answers!
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