"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
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@CateHall writes:
Will I agree that she was right? I'll resolve to YES if I think this has happened before the end of 2025; NO if obviously not; and open to partial resolutions.
Warning: this market may inherently be kind of fuzzy/vibes-based; if anyone has ideas for more objective criteria will answer the core question rather than getting into technicalities, please speak up!
Sources I will likely consult for a resolution, if they're open to advising:
My own information diet (friends, substack/blogs, LW, X/twitter)
Cate Hall herself
Manifold moderators
Some kind of LLM judge
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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