In how many months will Manifold's next FTE start?
12
74
แน€200
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
6

As determined by the date after September 1st, 2022 when the next FTE we hire (after @IngaWei) begins their first day on Manifold. Contracting, work trial positions are not included for this market. Resolves to 6 if we haven't hired anyone by market close.

As of today, we're not actively looking to hire -- but will always make space for world-class talent!)

Check out Manifold Finances for more info about our compensation, runway, etc.

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Resolving to 6, as we haven't hired anyone into a full-time position for Manifold.

(There's a bit of ambiguity as @RachelWeinberg started working on Manifund on Feb 10, but that's not structured as a FTE engagement for Manifold; she doesn't get equity in Manifold, and overall the position is more like an internship or work trial)

Any updates on this?

@LivInTheLookingGlass We still have a lot of growth milestones to hit before we can raise Series A and then freely hire. It's possible we could hire before then if we are especially confident in our growth.

But otherwise, it's a safer strategy to leave more runway. So, I think there's roughly a 40% chance we'd hire someone before April 1st (our rough target for raising Series A).

bought แน€20 of LOWER

I'm betting we hit PMF within ~3 months and start hiring.

bought แน€10 of HIGHER

IMO the bottleneck to getting Product Market Fit is not dev velocity at this point, but figuring out what's the right product to build. With that in mind I'm going long on this one.

@FRCassarino I do agree! But will also note that Product and Growth roles are included within FTE (full time employee)

@Austin Fair enough. A PM could make sense. A "Head of Growth" hire might make more sense once we actually do have PMF though - hiring someone that can make a great product grow even faster.

Well, I suppose I should add my related market :)