How will "range markets" work in Manifold?
8
5
Ṁ339resolved May 12
ResolvedN/A
1D
1W
1M
ALL
45%
Using CFMM, allow market creators to map 0-100% to a custom scale of their choice
5%
Using DPM, allow market creators to set up buckets (e.g. options of 10-20, 20-50, 50-200)
1.1%
(ante & discussion thread)
31%
Using CFMM, allow market creators to set up buckets
8%
Using LS-LMSR (aka the Hanson-Othman mechanism)
0.9%
CMMM - Constant Mean Market Maker: Uniswap CPMM generalised to more outcomes
0.4%
Moving Normal Distribution
A popular request is for Manifold to natively support "range markets" aka scalar markets: markets where you predict from a continuous range of numbers, rather than a binary YES/NO or a percent from 0-100%.
See also: https://manifold.markets/Cyril/will-manifold-implement-range-marke
This market will resolve to the option that is implemented as of May 1st, 2022; if none are implemented, than the one we devs have decided to use at that time; if we haven't decided, this market resolves N/A.
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Hm, at this point in time I think "Using CFMM, allow market creators to set up buckets" is our leading proposal, but we don't have native support for it. The thing that is the current best fit is "Using DPM, allow market creators to set up buckets (e.g. options of 10-20, 20-50, 50-200)". Some people still do "Using CFMM, allow market creators to map 0-100% to a custom scale of their choice" but I'm a bit suspicious of the mechanism
I'm leaning to resolve to N/A, any objections?
Probably converting existing 0-100 questions is only possible if this is done, and my question on whether I'll be able to convert them is at 16% https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-i-be-able-to-turn-my-existing-18f22bbe8829
This is a crackpot idea. Half baked.
So you have a range say number of pushups I will do this morning. Pick a mean say in my case 3 and a probability of doing double, say the 50%.
A normal is created based on this.
Now when you trade you buy a range of your choice. Ill have 3-4 pushups and it works out the probability.
Youd need to shift the mean and variance somehow along with the size of the bet to create that slippage we all love.
Mentioned in https://medium.com/bollinger-investment-group/constant-function-market-makers-defis-zero-to-one-innovation-968f77022159
I doubt you would go for this as it would feel different from C(f-Pepe)MM used for yes/no. But I see this market as an ideation session.
Just as binary CFMM keeps constant "initialprobofyes * ln(yessharesonthetable) + initialprobofno * ln(nosharesonthetable", a known-in-advance-multiple-choice CFMM can keep constant "initialprobofA * ln(Asharesontable) + initialprobofB * ln(Bsharesontable) + initialprobofB * ln(Bsharesontable)".
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