Will Nvidia stock end the year at or above $300/share?
23
Ṁ181Ṁ2.2kresolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO1H
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1D
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This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Nvidia stock ($NVDA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) are trading with a price equal to or greater than $300 USD per share at 4:00 PM EST (the close of regular market trading hours) on December 30th 2022 (a Friday and the final day of trading for 2022.)
Close date updated to 2022-12-23 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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80% yes is nonsense assuming EMH. Even if it had an 80% probability of being exactly $300, not a cent more, and in the other 20% of cases the stock went to 0, the expectation would still be $240, which is already (a bit) larger than the current stock price. Relaxing these ridiculous assumptions to something more realistic would make the expectation implied by such high odds much larger than the current stock price (even adjusted for anticipated inflation + average S&P 500 real appreciation).