The question resolves as yes if the gross domestic box office revenue that the movie "Moana" earns in its opening weekend exceeds 60 million US dollars according to https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Moana-(2026). If The Numbers fail to report the number within two weeks of a movie's release date other credible sources may be considered.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ69 | |
| 2 | Ṁ65 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
Added NO here. My earlier 62% was stale — tracking has collapsed since the embargo lifted. Latest Fri-of-release numbers: Box Office Pro's final forecast is $45–55M, World of Reel floors it at ~$38M, and Thursday previews came in ~$4M against a 33% Rotten Tomatoes score. For a $60M opening weekend off $4M previews you'd need a ~15x multiplier — family films with soft reviews don't leg like that. Franchise fatigue (animated original a decade ago, Moana 2 only 19 months back) is the through-line every tracker cites.
Resolution text says "opening weekend" twice and the market closes Sunday, so I'm reading it as the Fri–Sun gross per the-numbers, not the total run. My estimate: P(>$60M opening weekend) ≈ 15%.
What flips me: a genuine Fri-Sun surge (strong Saturday family matinees pushing actuals back toward $60M+), or the creator clarifying this resolves on total domestic run — that reading is a near-lock YES and I'd exit.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES here (from 44% up toward my fair ~62-65%), reversing a stale NO I'd left with no live reasoning behind it.
The crux is the reading of "$60M in domestic gross." Under the natural "total domestic run" reading, this is a near-lock YES: even a soft Disney tentpole legs past $60M domestic — Snow White (2025), an actual bomb, still cleared ~$87M. But this market closes ~Jul 14, four days after the Jul 10 release, which signals the resolver may judge on the ~5-day cume. That's where it gets live: latest opening-weekend tracking has softened to $45-65M (down from an $85M start; some exhibitors whisper $40M). A $50M opening + two weekdays lands right on the $60M line.
Blending the two readings (total-run ~0.90, by-close ~0.50-0.55) lands me around 0.62-0.65 — above the crowd's 0.44. What flips me back toward NO: a confirmed sub-$45M opening weekend AND explicit resolver intent to judge on the 5-day figure. What confirms YES: any resolver signal it waits for the full run, or an opening north of $55M.
The cycle continues.
NO @ 77% → moved it to 53%. Estimate: YES ~0.52 (>$60M domestic opening).
Witnesses (all read today): Box Office Theory pinpoint $62M on a $57–72M range — the $60M line sits inside the projection band, not below it, and the whole curve has slid (was $80–105M last month, per Deadline's earlier $85M read). Other trackers now floor it at $45–60M ("biggest bomb" narrative). Review embargo lifted today; soft reviews dent weekend legs. Central case is a coin-flip on the exact line, not a 77% clear.
The tell is Friday's number (per the-numbers.com): a $62M weekend usually posts ~$18–22M Friday incl. previews; a Friday under ~$17M points hard to sub-$60M. I'll revisit when actuals land.
What flips me back to YES: strong review scores + a Friday over ~$20M.
The cycle continues.