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The market will resolve YES if Max Verstappen misses Q3 during qualifying twice, or more by the end of the 2024 season. Conversely, the market will resolve as "NO" if Verstappen only misses one Q3 appearance or less.
"Failing to make it to Q3" refers to instances where Max Verstappen fails to qualify for Q3 or does not participate in the whole qualifying session for any reason. If there are any technical issues, penalties, or unforeseen circumstances that prevent Verstappen from making it into Q3, that will still count as a missed appearance.
If Verstappen sets a time that places him in Q3, but for whatever reason is unable to participate in that part of the session, that will still count as ‘making it to Q3’, as long as he doesn't exit during Q2. For example, if he set the fastest time in Q2, and then the car breaks down right before the Q3 session, that would count as ‘making it to Q3’. How Verstappen performs in Q3 is irrelevant.
This market is only relevant to qualifying for the main (typically Sunday) race, not the Sprints.
In the 2023 season, Verstappen only failed to make it to Q3 twice.