[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Logan Sargeant finish last in the Drivers Championship?
11
47
170
Dec 9
75%
chance

[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]

Resolves YES if Logan Sargeant finishes in last place in the World Drivers Championship in 2024.

Resolves YES if there is a tie between Logan Sargeant and another driver for last place.

Resolves YES if Logan Sargeant is replaced/retires mid-season but still has the least amount of points by season end.

Resolves YES if a driver who races in a reserve position or only for a few races, like Lawson in 2023 or Hülkenberg in 2022 also surpass or tie him in points.

Resolves N/A if Sargeant doesn't have a seat on the grid for the start of the 2024 season.

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Note the way championship ordering is determined for drivers who score no points is based on the highest race finish. For this reason Kubica finished ahead of Mazepin a few years ago even though neither scored any points and Kubica only raced in one or two events.

What happens if a reserve driver like Lawson in 2023 does not surpass him? Does that resolve no?

predicts NO

@SethWalder Yes, so even if Lawson raced once and scored 0 points, but Sargeant had scored one point over the course of season the market would resolve no.

Similarly if Lawson raced once and scored 2 points and Sargeant scored 1 point in the whole season to finish last the market would resolve yes

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