Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if “Total Public Debt Outstanding” (gross federal debt) reported in the U.S. Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset is at least $40,000,000,000,000 on any daily entry with a 2025 record date (Jan 1–Dec 31, 2025, ET). Otherwise NO. Source to check: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny (filter record_date to 2025 and view tot_pub_debt_out_amt). (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

• Metric: Total Public Debt Outstanding (Debt Held by the Public + Intragovernmental Holdings, as defined by Treasury; includes FFB). Values are unadjusted nominal USD; $40,000,000,000,000 or more counts. (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

• Notes: Data are posted on business days for the prior business day; we rely on the final values shown for 2025 on the dataset. (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

Background

• The Treasury “Debt to the Penny” dataset is the canonical daily source for gross federal debt and provides both the definition and time series. (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

• As context, multiple trackers place gross debt around the mid–$36T range in mid-2025 (e.g., ~$36.2T in June; nearly $37.0T as of Aug 8). (ycharts.com, pewresearch.org)

• The current statutory debt limit was raised to $41.1T, so a $40T print in 2025 would be within the legal cap. (pewresearch.org)

Considerations

• Calendar year, not fiscal year: this market uses Jan 1–Dec 31, 2025. Many federal reports use fiscal years.

• Any intrayear touch of $40T resolves YES; it need not finish 2025 at/above $40T.

• Treasury occasionally revises entries; resolution uses the latest figures displayed for 2025 on the Debt to the Penny dataset. (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)