The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent. Will this time finally be the time, or will he escape again? Place your bets!
RESOLUTION CLARIFICATION: This seems pretty difficult to stop now but I will wait for reputable press articles in Jan 2024 to say 'Mickey Mouse is public domain now' or words to that effect before resolving.
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As expected, now confirmed by major news outlets:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-67833411
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/01/business/mickey-mouse-early-version-copyright-expired/index.html
Still a little hard to believe, but it's happened!
There is a difference between the Mickey Mouse first version in "Steamboat Willie" and the version we know now with the red clothes and gloves. The one in "Steamboat Willie" is the one that is going to become public domain in 2024 (New York Times). But the modern version has the white gloves (which appeared first in 'The Opry House' in 1929), and the white eyes and black expressive pupils (which appeared for the first time in 'Fantasia' in 1940) will still be protected in 2024 (New York University).
According to the market rule to resolve the bet, I will bet YES because even though the old version will become public domain, newspapers or journals tend to use more attractive headlines, so seeing 'Mickey Mouse is public domain now' or similar titles would be possible.
@MP Is there a reason why we would? Unless something happens to change the legal situation before the end of the year, it should happen automatically with no further input.
@esusatyo That doesn't really provide any evidence that there's the political will to extend copyright terms again - and there is a whole lot more opposition (and organization of the opposition) now than in 1998.
The EFF seems very optimistic, and here's a quote from the Author's Guild in 2018 that surprised me:
> The Authors Guild, for example, "does not support extending the copyright term, especially since many of our members benefit from having access to a thriving and substantial public domain of older works," a Guild spokeswoman told Ars in an email. "If anything, we would likely support a rollback to a term of life-plus-50 if it were politically feasible."
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@NLRG_it will (p=0.83), good https://manifold.markets/AngolaMaldives/will-mickey-mouse-enter-the-public
@M Steamboat Willie. This will bring the original version of MM into the public domain - as you point out, specific changes made since will remain in copyright for longer (although whether Disney could mount a successful suit against someone for, say, interpreting the non-monochrome colour of his shorts to be red - as they themselves ordained later - is probably an open question).
@AngolaMaldives red was set by as early as 1928; see this poster:
http://www.thehistoryblog.com/archives/22084