Will Mickey Mouse enter the public domain on Jan 1st, 2024?
closes 2024

The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent. Will this time finally be the time, or will he escape again? Place your bets!

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esusatyo avatar
Enrico Susatyois predicting NO at 81%

Copyright: Forever Less One Day
Copyright: Forever Less One Day
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esusatyo avatar
Enrico Susatyois predicting NO at 81%

My wager is based on this.


Imuli avatar
Imuliis predicting YES at 81%

@esusatyo That doesn't really provide any evidence that there's the political will to extend copyright terms again - and there is a whole lot more opposition (and organization of the opposition) now than in 1998.

Imuli avatar
Imulibought Ṁ200 of YES

The EFF seems very optimistic, and here's a quote from the Author's Guild in 2018 that surprised me:

> The Authors Guild, for example, "does not support extending the copyright term, especially since many of our members benefit from having access to a thriving and substantial public domain of older works," a Guild spokeswoman told Ars in an email. "If anything, we would likely support a rollback to a term of life-plus-50 if it were politically feasible."

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonbought Ṁ50 of YES


ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by tetraspace 💎

@NLRG_it will (p=0.83), good https://manifold.markets/AngolaMaldives/will-mickey-mouse-enter-the-public

Accountdeletionrequested avatar

Will it resolve yes if first Steamboat Willie will enter public domain?

Note that "Steamboat Willie will enter public domain" and "Mickey Mouse enter the public domain" is a distinct thing, modern MM is a bit distinct from the first appearance.

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldives

@M Steamboat Willie. This will bring the original version of MM into the public domain - as you point out, specific changes made since will remain in copyright for longer (although whether Disney could mount a successful suit against someone for, say, interpreting the non-monochrome colour of his shorts to be red - as they themselves ordained later - is probably an open question).

Adam avatar

@AngolaMaldives red was set by as early as 1928; see this poster:

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