Resolves according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Systems.
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If Tammy becomes a hurricane and leaves in 7 days... then the base probability of another 2 hurricanes is about ~21%.
Right now only half of the models for Late guidance 18Z show it becoming a hurricane, so conditioning on the 21% above by 50% leaves ~10% which is near the market probability. OFCL doesn't show a hurricane in 5 days (and at best I can assign 47% probability that the forecast is off by -5kt or more at 5 days which is still less than 50% above); but if OFCL does update to show a hurricane I will sell some of NO shares.
Now NHC is forecasting Tammy to become a hurricane in 48h (Manifold has it at 85%, I put it at least 75%)), so I am betting with some small YES bets with the probability as 17%.
NO, The likelihood of having more than 8 hurricanes in the Atlantic is low, given the advanced stage of the hurricane season and data from the previous year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a maximum of 11 hurricanes for the current season. NOAA's outlook for the 2023 season anticipates 14-21 named storms, 6-11 of which could become hurricanes, with 2-5 potentially reaching major hurricane status. NOAA expresses 70% confidence in these predictions. The historical data from last year also supports the current assessment, making the probability of more than 8 hurricanes in the Atlantic less likely (NOAA, 2023, August 10; 2022, Atlantic Hurricane Season).
(2023, August 10). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Also take a look here for last year results (2022, Atlantic Hurricane Season. (n.d.). )
Still at 6 hurricanes. Based on my own workbook, the cumulative probability is ~ 34.4% for at least 2 more hurricanes (this only counts storms originating in NA basin, and doesn't consider whether the storm crosses basins or which basin it strengthens in). Edit: This actually counts if there was a hurricane present during the time frame (so it's possible the strengthening to hurricane happened prior, in which case it might be over-estimating the probabilities):
@will58c3 blah blah? 😦 The market should be much lower... 34% for 8 hurricanes, but for the question it asks for 9 hurricanes... ("more than 8") so it should be closer to 11% for base rates...
@parhizj sry. North Atlantic basin as opposed to Pacific, right? Or opposed to Gulf or Caribbean?
@will58c3 Question title includes "Atlantic".
It doesn't seem to specify North or South but South are very rare.
@ChristopherRandles Atlantic hurricanes include Carribean and Gulf. I was wondering if Atlantic basin means something different (I don't think it does).
@will58c3 Without putting more words in the mouth of the question creator, in best tracks they mark Gulf of Mexico as a sub basin of the Atlantic so I’m assuming that includes the Gulf of Mexico
@will58c3 Oh, in that case specifically applies to that dataset where Gulf of Mexico is a sub basin, so it is included.
@parhizj yeah i basically share your reaosning and statistics (w/ bit different methodology) 👍 obv there's the africa disturbance now.
At 6 hurricanes just past the peak of the season, and need three more… there is one disturbance that looked like it would become a hurricane but latest GFS from 00Z doesn’t show that anymore (latest NHC outlook from 8AM EDT still has it at 70% though) through the start of October, leaving October and November for 3 more hurricanes. ECMWF extended ACE forecast shows higher than normal energy the first week of October (2nd-9th), and lower than normal energy approaching the middle of October (9th -16th). With El Niño (through JJA at 1.1 and forecast to likely (65%) be above 1.5 for SON) we may see a less active hurricane season going through November.
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1703735688364204109?s=20
Of these three years that have the same number of hurricanes so far, one had 8 or less, and two had more than 8 putting the probability using these analogs at 66%. Note that only 2012 of those three years had hurricanes develop in October, so perhaps it should be a bit less?
The CSU forecast from Aug. 3 also had 9 hurricanes forecast.
Given all this I think the market probability of less than 66% is justified at the moment so I won’t bet for now.
Unless I'm missing something those two markets should match since there were 8 hurricanes last year. Potential for arbitrage.
https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-there-be-more-hurricanes-in-th?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u
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Edit: nevermind, misread.