Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes by November 30th?
closes Dec 1
Get Ṁ500 play money

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parhizj avatar

At 6 hurricanes just past the peak of the season, and need three more… there is one disturbance that looked like it would become a hurricane but latest GFS from 00Z doesn’t show that anymore (latest NHC outlook from 8AM EDT still has it at 70% though) through the start of October, leaving October and November for 3 more hurricanes. ECMWF extended ACE forecast shows higher than normal energy the first week of October (2nd-9th), and lower than normal energy approaching the middle of October (9th -16th). With El Niño (through JJA at 1.1 and forecast to likely (65%) be above 1.5 for SON) we may see a less active hurricane season going through November.


Of these three years that have the same number of hurricanes so far, one had 8 or less, and two had more than 8 putting the probability using these analogs at 66%. Note that only 2012 of those three years had hurricanes develop in October, so perhaps it should be a bit less?

The CSU forecast from Aug. 3 also had 9 hurricanes forecast.

Given all this I think the market probability of less than 66% is justified at the moment so I won’t bet for now.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico D


Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ20 of YES

Edit: nevermind, misread.