At 6 hurricanes just past the peak of the season, and need three more… there is one disturbance that looked like it would become a hurricane but latest GFS from 00Z doesn’t show that anymore (latest NHC outlook from 8AM EDT still has it at 70% though) through the start of October, leaving October and November for 3 more hurricanes. ECMWF extended ACE forecast shows higher than normal energy the first week of October (2nd-9th), and lower than normal energy approaching the middle of October (9th -16th). With El Niño (through JJA at 1.1 and forecast to likely (65%) be above 1.5 for SON) we may see a less active hurricane season going through November.

https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1703735688364204109?s=20

Of these three years that have the same number of hurricanes so far, one had 8 or less, and two had more than 8 putting the probability using these analogs at 66%. Note that only 2012 of those three years had hurricanes develop in October, so perhaps it should be a bit less?

The CSU forecast from Aug. 3 also had 9 hurricanes forecast.

Given all this I think the market probability of less than 66% is justified at the moment so I won’t bet for now.

Unless I'm missing something those two markets should match since there were 8 hurricanes last year. Potential for arbitrage.
https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-there-be-more-hurricanes-in-th?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Will there be more hurricanes in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season than in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season?

82% chance. This question covers the Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2023, and ends on November 30, 2023, and resolves YES if there are more than eight hurricanes (the number in 2022).

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Edit: nevermind, misread.