If Donald Trump is not the GOP presidential nominee, will it be DeSantis? | Manifold Markets

closes Oct 2, 2024

2024 US Presidential Election Politics MAGA-land

If Donald Trump is not the GOP presidential nominee, will it be DeSantis?

74%

chance

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bought Ṁ20 of YES

Agree he's overrated, but not quite this much.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I feel like this is regularly overestimated in the free response markets

bought Ṁ10 of NO

sold Ṁ5 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ59 NO from 79% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 79%

sold Ṁ10 YES at 80%

sold Ṁ10 YES at 80%

created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 90%

bought Ṁ500 YES from 74% to 80%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 75% to 74%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 74% to 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 72% to 73%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 72% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ95 YES from 69% to 73%

bought Ṁ15 YES at 69%

bought Ṁ100 YES from 63% to 69%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ3 YES at 63%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 73% to 63%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

sold Ṁ19 YES from 74% to 73%

Saber King of Knights

bought Ṁ40 YES from 72% to 74%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 72% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 73% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ200 YES from 68% to 75%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 69% to 68%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 68% to 69%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 69% to 68%

Marcus Abramovitch

bought Ṁ10 YES at 69%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 68% to 69%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 67% to 68%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 67%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 67%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 66%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 64% to 65%

bought Ṁ30 YES from 62% to 64%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 YES at 62%

bought Ṁ65 NO from 70% to 62%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 71% to 70%

sold Ṁ30 YES from 73% to 71%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ100 NO at 73% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 74% to 75%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 74%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 74%