@traders anyone else run into an issue with not receiving the N/A refund? I only got back M$1, rather than the M$777 I invested (and that the notification said I got back).

I made a bug report on discord, just curious if this is unique to me or if this specific market was somehow broken. I've gotten proper refunds from other N/A markets - this is the first time I've observed this.

I noticed this as well but just assumed it had been almost 100% loaned back to me

Aah, was this market before loans went away? For some reason I remembered betting on it more recently than that, but it appears I remembered wrong. Thanks for the sanity check!

Yeah yikes I got like -2000 upon resolution here...

@mods N/A please

@mods

Done.

thank you!

Just out of curiosity, are you resolving this when the GOP convention happens, or after the election (waiting to see if he makes it all the way to election day)?

I knew it from the very beginning! Too bad this is gonna N/A.

Why the sudden move?

@MP I noticed it was really high compared to: /AndrewG/who-will-be-the-republican-presiden-f919d704855c

Desantis is a total dumpster fire.

@BTE within the GOP, that's an argument in favor of YES

@BTE RDS being a dumpster fire is bearish your positions! The clock is ticking for an alternative to Trump

@MP Youngkin has nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting until after the Virginia state elections. He is term limited so he would actually be nuts not to run while governor.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/ron-desantiss-electoral-track-record

@Gabrielle any news?

@MP No immediate news, but I had forgotten about this market and thought it was way too low now after all of the news that had happened over the last few months. As people have been announcing their campaigns, basically no one has seemed like they’re a real competitor to either Trump or DeSantis. DeSantis has gone down in the polls while Trump has gone up, but no one else has gotten any meaningful polling success. At this point I’m at like 70% Trump, 27% DeSantis, and 3% everyone else. The only real wildcard is if Trump completely crashes for some strange reason unrelated to DeSantis gaining (the trial+Supreme Court prevent him from running?) while DeSantis also crashes (some horrible scandal?). That would leave room for other candidates. Without that though, I don’t see any path forward for anyone else.

Also, the current candidates all have some fatal flaws to be nominated by the Republican party. Haley is Indian and a woman, Scott is Black, Christie has attacked Trump and had his own scandals, Pence has gone against Trump, Ramaswamy is Indian and doesn’t have political experience. Most of the other major candidates are anti-Trump. To be clear, I don’t have a problem with any of those besides Christie’s scandals, but I think they’re all major obstacles for being nominated by the Republican party. Many of them seem like decent VP options for the winner to pick, but deal breakers for the primary. I guess Burgum doesn’t have any major issues, but really?

@Gabrielle I am very bullish Trump, so I think we're debating sex of the angels here. Nonetheless, seems odd people would choose RDS. He's basically a cheap version of Trump. I think that were they to choose someone else (other than being forced to do so), they'd go elsewhere to pick

@MP Trump, both personally and philosophically, has taken over the party. I think that he could potentially be defeated on a personal level between legal issues and attacks from other candidates, but his ideas still would have control over the party. So whoever is left after he’s taken down (if he is taken down) has to match Trumpism. That basically only leaves DeSantis or no-names. DeSantis for his part just had to sit pretty and overtake Trump while Trump is attacked by the other candidates.

@BoltonBailey