If Donald Trump is not the GOP presidential nominee, will it be DeSantis?
Basic
233
64k
Oct 2
15%
chance

If Donald Trump is chosen as the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee, resolves N/A.

Otherwise, resolves YES if Ron DeSantis is chosen.

Warning: it's probably gonna resolve N/A, and when that happens, all your profits will be reversed!

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bought Ṁ100 NO

I knew it from the very beginning! Too bad this is gonna N/A.

predicts NO

Why the sudden move?

predicts NO

@MP I noticed it was really high compared to: /AndrewG/who-will-be-the-republican-presiden-f919d704855c

Desantis is a total dumpster fire.

predicts YES

@BTE within the GOP, that's an argument in favor of YES

predicts NO

@BTE RDS being a dumpster fire is bearish your positions! The clock is ticking for an alternative to Trump

predicts NO

@MP Youngkin has nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting until after the Virginia state elections. He is term limited so he would actually be nuts not to run while governor.

predicts NO

@Gabrielle any news?

predicts YES

@MP No immediate news, but I had forgotten about this market and thought it was way too low now after all of the news that had happened over the last few months. As people have been announcing their campaigns, basically no one has seemed like they’re a real competitor to either Trump or DeSantis. DeSantis has gone down in the polls while Trump has gone up, but no one else has gotten any meaningful polling success. At this point I’m at like 70% Trump, 27% DeSantis, and 3% everyone else. The only real wildcard is if Trump completely crashes for some strange reason unrelated to DeSantis gaining (the trial+Supreme Court prevent him from running?) while DeSantis also crashes (some horrible scandal?). That would leave room for other candidates. Without that though, I don’t see any path forward for anyone else.

Also, the current candidates all have some fatal flaws to be nominated by the Republican party. Haley is Indian and a woman, Scott is Black, Christie has attacked Trump and had his own scandals, Pence has gone against Trump, Ramaswamy is Indian and doesn’t have political experience. Most of the other major candidates are anti-Trump. To be clear, I don’t have a problem with any of those besides Christie’s scandals, but I think they’re all major obstacles for being nominated by the Republican party. Many of them seem like decent VP options for the winner to pick, but deal breakers for the primary. I guess Burgum doesn’t have any major issues, but really?

predicts NO

@Gabrielle I am very bullish Trump, so I think we're debating sex of the angels here. Nonetheless, seems odd people would choose RDS. He's basically a cheap version of Trump. I think that were they to choose someone else (other than being forced to do so), they'd go elsewhere to pick

@MP Trump, both personally and philosophically, has taken over the party. I think that he could potentially be defeated on a personal level between legal issues and attacks from other candidates, but his ideas still would have control over the party. So whoever is left after he’s taken down (if he is taken down) has to match Trumpism. That basically only leaves DeSantis or no-names. DeSantis for his part just had to sit pretty and overtake Trump while Trump is attacked by the other candidates.

predicts YES
predicts YES

Agree he's overrated, but not quite this much.
I feel like this is regularly overestimated in the free response markets

@AndrewG I'm losing so much mana on this market...

predicts NO

@AndrewG I expect more contenders to come on the scene over the next 12-18 months. Once there is serious competition (which there will be, if for no other reason than that it's in the media's interest that people feel the race is close), this market will go down...

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