Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by August 1, 2034, any space agency successfully executes a mission that intentionally alters the trajectory of an asteroid that was on a confirmed or highly probable collision course with Earth.

To resolve YES, all of the following conditions must be met:

1. Successful Deflection: A spacecraft must intentionally impact, gravitationally tug, or otherwise apply force to an asteroid, resulting in a verified change in its trajectory. This change must be confirmed by tracking data from major space agencies or independent astronomical bodies (e.g., the Minor Planet Center or the International Asteroid Warning Network).

2. Prior Collision Risk: Prior to the deflection event, the targeted asteroid must have been classified as a credible threat of Earth impact. This is defined as having a non-zero cumulative impact probability listed on official monitoring databases, such as the NASA/JPL Sentry Risk Table or the ESA NEO Coordination Centre Risk List, where the deflection action directly prevents or substantially reduces the probability of a projected impact.

3. Timeline: The physical deflection attempt must be completed before August 1, 2034.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• No successful deflection of an Earth-bound asteroid is completed by the cutoff date.

• The only deflection missions conducted are purely scientific tests targeting asteroids that do not pose an impact threat to Earth (such as NASA’s DART mission in 2022 or China's planned 2030 mission targeting 2015 XF261).

The market creator will use official reports from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) or participating space agencies to determine the final resolution.

Background

While planetary defense missions have begun, active deflection has so far been limited to tests. In September 2022, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully altered the orbit of the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos, which posed no threat to Earth, validating the kinetic impactor technique. Similarly, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) has planned an asteroid deflection test for around 2030 targeting the harmless asteroid 2015 XF261.

As of 2026, there are no known asteroids with a high probability of a catastrophic Earth impact in the next century. Objects on the Sentry Risk Table with low-probability threats (such as 2024 YR4, which has potential close encounters in the 2030s) are closely monitored, but their impact risks typically drop to zero as more tracking observations are made. This market tracks whether a real, live threat emerges and is actively neutralized before August 1, 2034.

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