Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches $70,000 or higher at any point on or before March 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking the highest price recorded on major cryptocurrency exchanges (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or Binance) for that date range. If Bitcoin closes at or above $70,000 on any single day through March 31, 2026, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Background

Bitcoin rebounded more than 6% to about $68,500 on February 25, 2026, following weeks of extreme bearish pressure. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 but has since declined significantly. The Hash Ribbon indicator is close to signaling the end of a three-month miner capitulation, one of the longest capitulations on record, which historically aligns with market bottoms.

Considerations

Key resistance levels for bitcoin around $72,000 and $78,000 must be broken on a sustained basis to signal a stronger structural uptrend. Reaching $70,000 requires only a modest move from current levels (~$65,000-$68,500), but analyst sentiment remains divided. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows—$2.6 billion since the start of the year—highlighting waning investor confidence, while macroeconomic uncertainty, including tariff-related volatility and hawkish monetary policy, continues to weigh on crypto markets.

This description was generated by AI.