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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold revert "Use bayseian average hit rate for user topic score #2659" in June?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ247
resolved Jul 17
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Manifold reverts the specified PR or otherwise stops calculating conversion scores via prior-->posterior hits-misses distribution.

Current code from backend/shared/src/calculate-user-topic-interests.ts:

const totalHits = priorStats.hits + hits + FEED_CARD_HITS
const totalMisses = priorStats.misses + misses + FEED_CARD_MISSES
// Using score from https://www.evanmiller.org/bayesian-average-ratings.html
score = betaIncompleteInverse(
  1 / (1 + FEED_BETA_LOSS),
  totalHits,
  totalMisses
)
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with praise to Machine God, the Quest for Knowledge shall continue

eli5 what the new home feed does? show you stuff you bet on and do well at?

as a bayesian average rating myself, I must praise the devs for this