@traders anyone object to resolving this market to Yes? I’ll open up the floor for traders to debate

1. Whether TikTok has been banned

2. Whether “by the end of 2025” means banned for any amount of time before the end of 2025

@AmmonLam oh come on it’s not banned what the market is called makes it sound different don’t switch up

@AmmonLam I would make it not resolved tbh. The clarification yesterday is completely different than the title

@RichardKnoche exactly

@AmmonLam It's obviously yes LMAO

@AmmonLam I just searched for tiktok in the google play store (in the US), and it told me it is unavailable due to legal requirements. So it is banned right now, and right now is before the end of 2025, the resolution criteria have been met. There is no ambiguity here. You must resolve it as yes.

@RiverBellamy Tiktok is still not available on the Apple App store either

@SaiVazquez Yes side seems to have more public support given the upvote/downvote count

@AmmonLam I mean, come on. The law went into effect at midnight. The servers shut down, even if they're back up now. App stores still have it banned. Trump might do something to unban it later, but that hasn't happened yet. It was banned both in theory and practice. There's no argument for no here. Similar chaos happened on Polymarket and they clarified it was obviously going yes.

@AmmonLam to me it was banned which means it “will be banned by the end of 2025” similar to how “will bitcoin reach $100k by end of 2025” does not mean on Dec 31, 2025. I hold “Yes,” but I traded purely on news, because it seemed like a “Yes” resolution was imminent.

@benmanns It was objectively banned. The same real-money market on Polymarket has already gone yes: https://polymarket.com/event/tiktok-banned-in-2025

At 10:07am EST Jan 20, 2025:

Edit for clarification: This is the Google Play Store.

Not the same title in polymarket. Another market seems to have a completely different understanding of the resolution even though it has the same title. https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-united-w44umidk8q

@RichardKnoche That looks like an absentee market creator, not a different understanding.

Okay, after discussing it with o1 I am willing to take the L https://chatgpt.com/share/678e6be1-d4f4-8001-9936-2bb097e3e646

It’s back up and unbanned

@Ej_is_him23 unbanned implies it was banned

TikTok is back up

Since the title includes "by the end of 2025" instead of just "in 2025", does that mean this current ban doesn't count since it has to be banned on December 31st 2025?

@Ammar no, the English word "by" is different than using "on" or "at" and means "at any time before"

Fair

With disappearance from the app stores and unavailability to US users, the ban has now taken effect.

https://x.com/nancook/status/1813324031979856079

-- Trump said he would allow Powell to finish his term as Fed Chair if re-elected

-- No more TikTok ban

-- Cool to the idea of the US protecting Taiwan

-- Would love to lower corporate tax rate to 15% -- He'd consider Jamie Dimon as Treasury Secretary

it's already law

Lawsuits are still unresolved, Trump could rescind it through executive order, etc.

You can't rescind a law passed by Congress by an executive order

But there is discretion in whether the executive branch chooses to enforce the "ban", correct? Plus the lawsuit, there's a decent chance the ban doesn't happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protecting_Americans_from_Foreign_Adversary_Controlled_Applications_Act

It would ban social networking apps within 270 to 360 days if they are determined by the president of the United States and relevant provisions to be a "foreign adversary controlled application". The act explicitly applies to Beijing-based, but Cayman Islands-domiciled ByteDance Ltd. and its subsidiaries—including TikTok—without the need for additional determination. It ceases to be applicable if an app is sold and no longer considered by the president to be controlled by a foreign adversary of the United States.[b]

I believe foreign adversary nations (Iran, NK, Russia, China) are explicitly written into law, and failure to enforce what is very clearly an app controlled by a foreign adversary would probably result in a lawsuit and a federal court forcing him to do so. Of course there is a chance that it gets overturned in Court but I don't think Trump will have much say here, unless he can get Congress to pass a TikTok unban, which I think is incredibly unlikely.