Resolve to Yes if the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market is greater than 90% at any two of the following moments on May 23rd: 12 noon, 3 pm, and 6 pm ET
Added clarification: I'm resolving based on the rounded displayed number on Manifold UI. Which means that the displayed number has to be 91% to be "greater than 90%"
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ237 | |
| 2 | Ṁ58 | |
| 3 | Ṁ35 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
@DarrenGenePeterson What change? It shows 90% at 3 and at 6. Market asking about probability at three points in time.
@DarrenGenePeterson please refer to another discussion thread where I specified that the resolution is based on the UI displayed number. There's 3 other of my markets resolved this way on the last three days.
@AmmonLam it's also a pretty common way to resolve these. reasonably, most users can't / won't check the API
@Stralor tbf to Darren, I do understand the desire for explicit clarity. having it announced in description is a nice-to-have, even if not necessary! I would have bet more aggressively, for example
@Stralor At least going forward, the resolution criteria based on displayed number will be explicit in the description
@AmmonLam No worries. This is my first (and probably last) day here, and I am just poking around. TBH I find that whole thing to be very unserious. I think without real skin and a real game the whole exercise becomes pointless.
@DarrenGenePeterson Manifold market is somewhat unserious, since people are free to create their own market. It can be fun though, hope you find a reason to stick around
@AmmonLam Does "greater than 90%" mean 90% (as displayed on the Manifold UI) is excluded? If so we're 1/2 so far.
@DanMan314 fwiw I had made the assumption that 90.0001+% is greater than 90 but don't actually know how the math for percentages here works and if there is rounding or visibility in to more exact percentages. Maybe via API?
@Abraxas yea it's higher than 90 via the API. Some markets specify "as displayed in the manifold UI", some specify the API. That's sort of why I didn't bet lol. I should have bet NO and sold when the market dipped after my comment though, that probably would have been safe.
@DanMan314 I'm resolving based on the rounded displayed number on Manifold UI. Which means that the displayed number has to be 91% to be "greater than 90%"
12 Yes, 3 No, 6 No.
NO: Only 1 is greater than 90%. Need at least 2 to resolve to YES.
Precedent: