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Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?

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Please resolve. @mods

This should be resolved now.

sold Ṁ18 YES

Ah shoot

Someone correct me, but isn't this a huge arbitrage? This market is claiming that the Pope's chances is 56%, while the market below is claiming that the Pope's chances is 48% (as of writing)

@inaccessibles he's allowed to abdicate, in which case (if he's still alive at the end of the year) both markets would resolve YES.

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Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?

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