Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?
85
1kṀ51k
2026
63%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Someone correct me, but isn't this a huge arbitrage? This market is claiming that the Pope's chances is 56%, while the market below is claiming that the Pope's chances is 48% (as of writing)

@inaccessibles he's allowed to abdicate, in which case (if he's still alive at the end of the year) both markets would resolve YES.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules