Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats
Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 8000 monthly active users at any point in 2023
Resolves "NO" otherwise
Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ12,355 | |
| 2 | αΉ4,388 | |
| 3 | αΉ3,704 | |
| 4 | αΉ2,174 | |
| 5 | αΉ1,303 |
@nickten my thoughts exactly. Also all we need is one tweet from Lex or some other micro celeb to get there. This feels like a well-priced proxy for a lot of other possible events
@shorty Yep. Put my position here with the thought that if they donβt hit this goal, the site wonβt be here long anyway. I donβt see buying NO here ever making me happy even if it pays out
@MartinRandall What is it about Nov 20-Dec10 that attracted so many users to go active? If you have any guess
I'm showcasing this market (my own market) because:
-It tracks an important metric relevant to Manifold's future viability: if Manifold stops growing in active users, it might not be around anymore in a few years.
-It's a decision-relevant question: if Manifold were to stop growing and not be around in a few years, some users may find less incentive to participate right now.
-Compared to other existing markets that track active users, I selected the Monthly Active User measure because it is less susceptible to manipulation