Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2023?
23
450Ṁ2398
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Resolution according to FIDE offical ratings

https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml

Chess
New Year's Resolutions 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ41
2Ṁ23
3Ṁ22
4Ṁ12
5Ṁ10

People are also trading

Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025?
97% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
60% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
85% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
20% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
29% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen stay the top-rated chess player through 2025?
96% chance
Who will be the first chess player with FIDE rating surpassing Magnus Carlsen?
Will Magnus Carlsen still be the best chess player in 2026?
95% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
83% chance
Sort by:

Carlsen currently has the highest rating. I don't think there are any relevant competitions scheduled for the rest of the year, so I don't see how it could resolve other than Yes by year's end.

Related market for those who are bored by the likelihood of Magnus being the highest ranked player for a while:
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminShindel/who-will-be-the-highest-rated-chess?r=QmVuamFtaW5TaGluZGVs

Who will be the highest rated chess player in the world not named Magnus Carlsen at the end of 2023?
This resolves to the highest rated chess player that is not Magnus Carlsen on the FIDE rating list published at the start of January 2024. I may resolve this preemptively based on the December 31st live chess ratings list (https://2700chess.com/) unless it is so close that waiting for the official…

Will any player other than Magnus Carlsen be rated above 2800 (classical chess, live rating) now till the end of 2023?
41% chance. Resolves yes if any player other than Magnus Carlsen is rated above 2800 in classical according to this list at any point from now till the end of 2023: https://2700chess.com/ [link preview]

https://manifold.markets/Kaivu/will-any-player-other-than-magnus-c

People are also trading

Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025?
97% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?
60% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
85% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
20% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?
29% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen stay the top-rated chess player through 2025?
96% chance
Who will be the first chess player with FIDE rating surpassing Magnus Carlsen?
Will Magnus Carlsen still be the best chess player in 2026?
95% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
83% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy