Carlsen currently has the highest rating. I don't think there are any relevant competitions scheduled for the rest of the year, so I don't see how it could resolve other than Yes by year's end.

Related market for those who are bored by the likelihood of Magnus being the highest ranked player for a while:
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminShindel/who-will-be-the-highest-rated-chess?r=QmVuamFtaW5TaGluZGVs

Who will be the highest rated chess player in the world not named Magnus Carlsen at the end of 2023?

This resolves to the highest rated chess player that is not Magnus Carlsen on the FIDE rating list published at the start of January 2024. I may resolve this preemptively based on the December 31st live chess ratings list (https://2700chess.com/) unless it is so close that waiting for the official…

https://manifold.markets/Kaivu/will-any-player-other-than-magnus-c