Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2040?
Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2040?
8
130Ṁ1242041
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?
6% chance
Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2025?
96% chance
Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2035?
60% chance
Will Jerome Powell be alive through the end of 2030?
69% chance
Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term?
8% chance
Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026?
89% chance
Will president Trump fire Jerome Powell before EOY 2025?
2% chance
Will Alan Greenspan pass away before the end of 2025?
33% chance
Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2040?
8% chance
Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?
4% chance