Sold because of the 10x devaluation in mana coming in May, I want to get whatever charitable donations I can done before then.

I'm not certain this is going to resolve no, but it's trending in that direction...

Here's where the preliminary numbers show up as they come in (currently up to April 19): https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/nclimgrid-daily/access/averages/2024/tavg-202404-cns-prelim.csv NOTE: These numbers get adjusted up and down a bit sometimes, they're not set in stone yet.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/nclimgrid-daily/access/averages/2006/ will give you the 2006 numbers, and April 2006 is the April to beat. The numeric temperature to beat is 12.92 degrees C.

At present, in order to get to an average above 12.92, the remaining days of this month would have to come in at 15.7 or above. When @Apple_ put in place their limit orders, the most recent number was 15.24, and if the rest of the month from then on had come in at 15.24 or above, it would have resolved yes - so I sure was worried I'd picked the wrong side, on that day. But that temperature is the high point of this month so far. Could still turn around, the outlooks have above average temperatures for much of the US for the rest of the month... but if we get a couple more 11-12 degree days, it'll be a pretty much foregone conclusion which way this will resolve, at which point I'll be going all-in on no.

@equinoxhq any followup analysis? I don't mean to be lazy... but that's what's happening😌

@alieninmybeverage Using the linked spreadsheet current April average (data goes til 22nd) is 11.24°C. Would need 17.7°C average for the remaining days for the monthly average to be above 12.92°C, April 2006’s average. Confident in my no position 😌

@summer_of_bliss I see you just sold... care to explain?

@alieninmybeverage Selling gave me ~the same value of resolving + this was my biggest position + wanted liquidity for other markets

@alieninmybeverage Lost about 5% selling early relative to resolving but this markets gives me a >5% return by May 1

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-youtube-channels-will-release-ef3fa5e26d04?r=c3VtbWVyX29mX2JsaXNz

@summer_of_bliss I suspected as much since you didn't then buy shares of YES, but I wanted to be sure that it wasn't based on new information.

I also didn't consider the possibility when I went the lazy route of dumping my money thinking the market could only go my way. Hadn't considered someone gaining and taking the liquidity, which was a silly thing to overlook. But then, it won't matter since I'm cashing out for charity on the payout either way.