When will we have real money trading on Manifold?
Basic
23
Ṁ5094
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
N/A
na
Resolved
NO
Before July 2024
Resolved
YES
Before July 2026
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 2027
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 2027
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 2026
Resolved
YES
Before Jan 2025
Resolved
YES
Before July 2025
Resolved
YES
It will happen within 1 year of the Big Pivot
Resolved
NO
It will happen after CFTC approves prediction market on election outcomes
Resolved
NO
It will happen while James Grugett is still the CEO of Manifold
Resolved
NO
After Jimmy Carter dies
Resolved
NO
After Joe Biden dies
Resolved
NO
After Donald Trump dies
Resolved
NO
Before September 2024

If exchanging Mana to USD between users is no longer banned, resolves Yes.
If Mana can be exchanged to USD through Manifold, resolves Yes.

If Mana can be exchanged for gift card/ valuable goods that can be easily exchanged for USD, resolves Yes.

If a currency other than Mana is introduced on Manifold that can be exchange for real money, resolves Yes

[Update: I consider prize points to fit into the category of "valuable goods" that can be easily exchanged for USD, so this market will resolve Yes as soon as prize points are redeemable for USD]

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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bought Ṁ100 NO

@AmmonLam If prize points count, I'm confident sweepcash counts, so these can resolve. (mostly YES, except a few no, like James wasn't CEO at that point & etc)

@AmmonLam can resolve

bought Ṁ50 NO

@AmmoLlama I've been trading on the assumption that if another currency is introduced that is said to be exchangeable for real money in the future, that is not sufficient for a Yes resolution. Options only resolve Yes if real money redemption are possible by that point in time. Please confirm and/or clarify in the market description.

I sold thinking the sweepstakes model didn't fit any of these criteria, that's unfortunate.

Which of the two "Before Jan 2027" options was supposed to be "Before July 2027"? 😬

@ML12d1 Oh, and what's up with the two "Before Jan 2025" options? 🤔

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