When will we have real money trading on Manifold?
14
103
แน€990
2027
65%
Before July 2024
90%
Before Jan 2025
91%
Before July 2025
91%
Before July 2026
89%
Before Jan 2026
90%
Before Jan 2027
93%
Before Jan 2027
9%
It will happen after CFTC approves prediction market on election outcomes
89%
It will happen while James Grugett is still the CEO of Manifold
89%
It will happen within 1 year of the Big Pivot
16%
After Jimmy Carter dies
28%
After Joe Biden dies
24%
After Donald Trump dies

If exchanging Mana to USD between users is no longer banned, resolves Yes.
If Mana can be exchanged to USD through Manifold, resolves Yes.

If Mana can be exchanged for gift card/ valuable goods that can be easily exchanged for USD, resolves Yes.

If a currency other than Mana is introduced on Manifold that can be exchange for real money, resolves Yes

[Update: I consider prize points to fit into the category of "valuable goods" that can be easily exchanged for USD, so this market will resolve Yes as soon as prize points are redeemable for USD]

Get แน€200 play money
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bought แน€50 Before July 2024 NO

@AmmoLlama I've been trading on the assumption that if another currency is introduced that is said to be exchangeable for real money in the future, that is not sufficient for a Yes resolution. Options only resolve Yes if real money redemption are possible by that point in time. Please confirm and/or clarify in the market description.

I sold thinking the sweepstakes model didn't fit any of these criteria, that's unfortunate.

Before Jan 2027

Which of the two "Before Jan 2027" options was supposed to be "Before July 2027"? ๐Ÿ˜ฌ

@ML12d1 Oh, and what's up with the two "Before Jan 2025" options? ๐Ÿค”