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When will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
9
Ṁ375Ṁ1.3k
resolved Mar 12
100%97%
March 2024
0.4%
February 2024
0.2%
April 2024
0.4%
May 2024
0.8%
June 2024
0.5%
July 2024 or later
0.3%Other

Uses the Wikipedia definition of presumptive nominee:

In United States presidential elections, the presumptive nominee is a presidential candidate who is assumed to be their party's nominee, but has not yet been formally nominated or elected by their political party at the party's nominating convention.[3][4] Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of their party when their "last serious challenger drops out"[5] or when the candidate "mathematically clinches—whichever comes first. But there is still room for interpretation."[6] A candidate mathematically clinches a nomination by securing a simple majority (i.e., more than 50 percent) of delegates through the primaries and caucuses prior to the convention.[3][4] The time at which news organizations begin to refer to a candidate as the "presumptive nominee" varies from election to election.[6] The shift in media usage from "front-runner" to "presumptive nominee" is considered a significant change for a campaign.[6]

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@AmmonLam should resolve to March

Biden now has 1527 of the 1968 he needs. Dean Phillips has dropped out. Jason Phillips won American Samoa where less then 100 participated. Uncommitted has 13 delegates. Marianne Williamson already dropped out once and likely will again soon, and has 0 delegates.

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/delegate-tracker/

Hasn't he already? The party as an org fully backs him, the two people running against him are getting 2% of the vote

@NeilG "Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of their party when their "last serious challenger drops out"
Are the remaining two people not serious challenger?

@AmmonLam they are serious about their attempt, but unless there is significant black swan event they will not become the presumptive nominee and they don't appear to have any serious support in the party leadership.