Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of May 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%])
8
170Ṁ384resolved Jun 8
Resolved as
40%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the end of May 2023, I will evaluate the referenced Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee market and determine the probability based on the one-day average price, which I will label as AP. The resolution of this market will be as follows:
Resolves to 0% if AP <=85%
Resolves to 10% if AP ==86%
Resolves to 20% if AP ==87%
....
Resolves to 80% if AP ==93%
Resolves to 90% if AP ==94%
Resolves to 100% if AP >=95%
I will try to keep the margin of error for the final resolution to be less than 5%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ39 | |
2 | Ṁ4 | |
3 | Ṁ2 | |
4 | Ṁ0 |