Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of June 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%])
8
35
แน213แน150
resolved Jul 10
Resolved as
30%1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the end of June 2023, I will evaluate the referenced Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee market and determine the probability based on the one-day average price, which I will label as AP. The resolution of this market will be as follows:
Resolves to 0% if AP <=85%
Resolves to 10% if AP ==86%
Resolves to 20% if AP ==87%
....
Resolves to 80% if AP ==93%
Resolves to 90% if AP ==94%
Resolves to 100% if AP >=95%
I will try to keep the margin of error for the final resolution to be less than 5%
Get แน200 play money
๐ Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | แน18 | |
2 | แน2 | |
3 | แน2 | |
4 | แน0 | |
5 | แน0 |
More related questions
Related questions
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
96% chance
If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?
51% chance
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
93% chance
Biden's 2024 popular vote share
If Biden wins in 2024, will Kamala Harris be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
30% chance
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
94% chance
Will Joe Biden be the 2024 Democratic party nominee for President?
96% chance
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
96% chance
Will FiveThirtyEight's final 2024 presidential forecast give Biden a >=80% chance of winning?
10% chance