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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI officially launch any new publicly named AI model before May 1, 2026?
22
Ṁ100Ṁ1.4k
resolved Apr 26
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially announces and makes publicly available any newly named AI model before 12:00 AM UTC on May 1, 2026.

Eligible announcements may include launches via:

  • Official OpenAI blog

  • Official livestream or event

  • Product page

  • API documentation

  • ChatGPT release notes

  • Verified OpenAI social media announcements tied to an actual release

A qualifying model must be a new publicly named model in one of these categories:

  • Language model

  • Reasoning model

  • Image model

  • Audio model

  • Video model

  • Multimodal model

Examples that count:

  • A new GPT-series model

  • A newly named reasoning model

  • A newly named image/video/audio model

  • A newly named API/developer model

This market resolves NO if no qualifying OpenAI model launch occurs before the deadline.

Does NOT count:

  • Silent upgrades to existing models

  • Minor revisions of an existing model

  • UI-only features

  • Pricing changes

  • Region rollouts

  • Rumors or leaks

  • Renaming without a real new release

Resolution source priority:

  1. Official OpenAI sources

  2. Official documentation

  3. Public availability

Close Time:
May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

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it is a YES