Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the person who is officially elected as the next permanent leader (Chairman/Fraktionsvorsitzender) of the joint CDU/CSU parliamentary group (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag), succeeding Jens Spahn following his resignation.

• Interim Leadership: Alexander Hoffmann, who took over as acting leader in the interim following Spahn's resignation, will not qualify for the resolution of this market unless he is formally elected by the parliamentary group as the permanent leader.

• Sources: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group website or major German news outlets such as Tagesschau or Der Spiegel.

• Timing: The market will resolve as soon as the permanent successor is officially elected by the group's members.

Background

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. His resignation followed intense public and party pressure after it was revealed that he and his husband had welcomed a child via a surrogate mother in the United States. Because surrogacy is strictly prohibited under German law and the CDU/CSU coalition maintains a strong policy opposing its legalization, Spahn faced widespread criticism and accusations of political hypocrisy.

Following Spahn's departure, CSU State Group Leader Alexander Hoffmann assumed temporary leadership. Chancellor and CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz has indicated that he intends to resolve the permanent succession quickly, aiming to propose a nominee in coordination with CSU Leader Markus Söder.

Prominent candidates under discussion or suggested in the user's list include:

• Thorsten Frei: Currently the Chief of the Federal Chancellery (Kanzleramtschef) and a close ally of Chancellor Merz. He previously served as the group's First Parliamentary Secretary (Chief Whip).

• Carsten Linnemann: Currently the Secretary General of the CDU.

• Alexander Dobrindt: Currently the Federal Minister of the Interior (Innenminister) and a senior CSU leader.

• Nina Warken: Currently the Federal Minister of Health and leader of the Frauen-Union.

• Günter Krings: A veteran CDU member of the Bundestag with extensive legal policy experience.