Alicorn's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.57
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Alicorn bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or his ideas be mentioned during the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?NOṀ10
- Will the police do anything about my stolen cash? (Over a thousand dollars)NOṀ5
- in the glowfic thread "for no laid course prepare" will Merrin do emergency work again before she gets a night's sleep?NOṀ5
10%
- Will Manifold provide a visible & trusted source of randomness by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Scandal markets for EA related things will unfairly tank someone's reputation before 2024, or otherwise seem (ETA: significantly) negative EV in retrospect because of drama caused or changed perception of EA.NOṀ10
- [Planecrash] Vf Puryvnk npghnyyl qrfgeblrq nf bs guvf znexrg'f perngvbaNOṀ10
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%