What is going to be the October surprise?
Standard
454
Ṁ130k
Nov 8
56%
No surprise, boring party
39%
Something else not listed here
33%
Israel invades Lebanon
20%
Gas prices spike by 10% or more
19%
Major hurricane landfall in a swing state
14%
Stock market correction
12%
(another) clear assassination attempt on either candidate
11%
George Bush endorses Harris
10%
New Trump affair (post-2020) uncovered
10%
Douglas Emhoff Slapping His Ex-Girlfirend
10%
Either candidate accepted money from a foreign government illegally for their 2024 campaign
9%
Trump is unable to complete his candidacy
9%
A leaked war or corruption document from Russia or Ukraine on either of the candidates
8%
Unexpected military gains in the Ukraine-Russia war, directly influencing elections
8%
Trump Epstein drops
8%
Trump campaign files previously leaked to press are published (see comment)
8%
100+ new cases of human H5N1 in the United States
8%
Harris emails scandal
7%
Natural disaster not previously mentioned
7%
Video evidence of Trump saying a slur

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise

Only applies to news events between 10/1-10/31. Any events happening outside of that range must resolve No.

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I have no idea how, in one day, this market shifted from No Surprise to Major Hurricane, even though the hurricane had been expected for at least a week and was already well known to be a big one

bought Ṁ50 Israel invades Lebanon NO

@GGckr Charitably, I think this includes NC which was more of a surprise and still sort of developing as a story, and it’s a swing state.

sold Ṁ32 Something else not l... NO

@GGckr Florida is not a swing state.

@NicoDelon That's true too, which makes the bump even weirder.

Something else not listed here

@biased this is not a good option. There should be a standard ‘Other’ option. People keep adding answers but no one who is betting on this one then gets shares when new ones are added.

EDIT: I understand why the option is available but this still seems suboptimal.

Yeah until the mods ruined it and said we couldn't add any more options 😡

@NicoDelon Other is only available when a single option resolves true. If multiple options can resolve true, then it is not available. Try it

@biased I know that but didn’t know this one could resolve to multiple options. Now that makes more sense.

Natural disaster not previously mentioned

In hindsight, could this get changed to something like "Other natural disaster?" I basically just intended for it to be any disaster other than "major hurricane landfall in a swing state."

Major hurricane landfall in a swing state

@SaviorofPlant Florida surely should count here right? Most websites are listing it as a swing state on the margins and it's the subject of many polls, even if it might not end up particularly close.

@benshindel I don’t think that’s accurate that most sites list it as a swing state. There are 7 states that everyone recognizes as swing states.

bought Ṁ50 Major hurricane land... NO

@benshindel Florida is not really a swing state anymore.

@NicoDelon I am told it is the swinging state. 😉

@CryptoNeoLiberalist in the Villages, yes. 😂

@mods please n/a "Something else not listed here"

@mods don't n/a something else not listed here I want my sweet sweet mama

@nikki We do not n/a here. @mods You can ignore it.

There's 100 people who traded on it, it's the most contested option on this market. I'm reluctant to resolve it N/A.

I removed the option the option to add new answers which the creator planned to do anyways before they left the site. (Technically I toggled it so only the creator can add answers, but that doesn't really make a difference here).

So now this option can work properly, because people will not be able to add the unexpected event as an answer after the fact.

sold Ṁ8 Answer #tkkgqclsi4 YES

I'm closing all my positions in this market. This is not a well run question; "October Surprise" is too nebulous a concept and the market creator is not providing needed clarity.

Here is the November surprise some of us are cooking up for all of you!

FWIW, mainstream media does not appear to consider anything that has occurred to date to constitute an October surprise (I personally agree, but am not invested). This headline is from yesterday.

@mqudsi I actually saw a Politico article that called seemingly EVERYTHING that happened to date an "October Surprise."

@Marnix that’s Politico for you.

bought Ṁ20 Israel invades Lebanon NO

What’s the precise resolution criteria?

@BlueDragon We’ve all been asking that.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@BlueDragon When I see it, you all will know.