How is this not resolved yet the election is over

@CateHall @mods this happened on Sept 26 so should resolve to NO

@mods also, if something is resolved to have happened, then the option "No surprise, boring party" should be resolved as "NO"

@mods can we use this for arbitrage ? it is referring to the option "Israel invades Lebanon", time frame until 31-October... https://manifold.markets/LolPopb5f2/will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t

Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?

Resolved YES. I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/invasion So if the Israeli military enters Lebanon in big numbers in an aim of invasion/take control of parts/the entirety of Lebanon it will be resolved to yes. Like Russia is invading parts of Ukraine but for Lebanon. EDIT: According to the definition I used to determine if it is an invasion which is the Cambridge dictionary definition the market is resolved to YES. EDIT 2: I know i have worded the original question too broad it shouldve been a ground invasion but most of the people has invested just judging on the title and the definition. EDIT 3: Everything after the defenition was an attempt to rephrase and i admit it was badly written. But what is happening is a massive air invasion and attacks on the capital so the market must resolve to YES EDIT 4: I am ready to repay everyone who thinks it is unfair or judged my market on the last* part. EDIT 5: To those who asked what was meant by "Like Russia/Ukraine" it was meant to be a suddent attack no matter what the aggressor calls it in this case "special military operation" but it was clearly an invasion and this is clearly an invasion

@mods Creator is inactive. Most of these straightforwardly did not happen during October and should be resolved NO.

@MugaSofer @mods https://time.com/7095722/elon-musk-million-dollar-prize-questions/ ,

so that was reported to be happening, i want my manna :)

The Legal Questions Around Elon Musk’s Million-Dollar Prize

Experts say that the prize could be a violation of federal law, and could lead to up to $10,000 fines and/or five years of imprisonment.

@AliceFlowers ????

Resolution criteria are very unclear but the biggest surprise was the total lack of an October surprise.

it may be a November surprise, but - those fuckers killed Peanut.

@AliceFlowers resolve this? I don’t see any reason to wait until Nov 7

@GammaLaser there's always an October surprise. You just gotta make one up after the election to explain the results

@AliceFlowers Can we get a resolution on all the ones that didn't happen, at the very least?

@mods creator has been inactive all month and this is a pretty big market

@SaviorofPlant oh my god this market has terribly unspecific resolution criteria how did I not see this before

@NivlacM Kind of undermines the whole “prediction market” idea to retroactively pick something later, no? Are we really just betting now on what some random creator decides to go with after the fact? There’s been things throughout the month that were referred to this way but nothing definitive.

@Conflux Would N/A make sense? This is clearly in subjective territory now with no big surprise drop like the Access Hollywood tape, Comey letter, Hunter laptop, etc. happening to either campaign and multiple events listed already happened but we have no criteria for what counts and many of them have had some level of probable political impact.

@LiamZ I think we’ll try to listen to the market creator’s interpretation first

candidate calling for the execution of Liz Cheney?

@JesWolfe It's already november.

@GGckr SURPRISE

biden bit a baby

Like you haven't 😡

@NivlacM hmm. are we counting pieces of dead animal babies? even then I don't know for sure - none of the meat I've eaten was deliberately marketed to me as coming from baby animals but I've eaten so much meat over the course of my life that there was probably a baby in there somewhere.

@ZaneMiller never had lamb burgers?

Or nibbled on a puppy cuz of how cute it is!