How will this market resolve is Israel invades southern Lebanon in late September, but is still invading by October? Would that resolve no since the invasion started too early?

@JamesOrr I added this option and intended it to resolve no in this case but it's up to the market creator

@jBosc The weirdest part about this coming out is that it would probably impact voters' perception of Trump, despite there already being so much information out there about how Trump is a serial cheater

Is Florida a swing state, for the purposes of "major hurricane lands in a swing state"? (I assume Georgia and North Carolina are.) Also, does "lands" mean "makes landfall" or "passes through"? @SaviorofPlant

honestly if we get enough of these before october they might stop being a surprise

Doesn't "New Trump affair (post-2020) uncovered" include "Trump is confirmed to be carrying on an affair with Laura Loomer" and so the former should be higher? Currently they're at 13% and 22%.

Corrected since then, currently at 29% and 19%.

I suppose someone who cares about such things should start a question about the 10% (non-Loomer affair post-2020)!

@njmkw He's a leader in fertilization!

@jBosc arbitrage available:

@biased Other exists for a reason 😡 @mods is it possible to mutate this into Other

@NivlacM no

@NivlacM Where does Other exist?

It should be N/A'd as long as it's possible to add new answers.

@HenryRodgers @AliceFlowers Please can you NA it?

@CateHall context: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/13/media/trump-campaign-hack-news-media-report-iran-wikileaks/index.html

This market needs a lot more rigor. Easily there could be Harris email leaks that most people would be like "that doesnt qualify as an october surprise." It is very likely that 50% of people believe X event was the october surprise and 50% believe nothing qualified to be an october surprise. Unless you can make this more rigorous, maybe something like a nyt article calling it such, anybody betting here is just gambling on the whims of the poster and shouldnt entertain this.

@GregMister I made this market while idly chatting with someone at a bar: suggestions welcome to make it more rigorous. At the moment it's basically "What news in October could impact the campaign" - this is vague

@AliceFlowers I gave a suggestion - perhaps a major news article calling it such

israel invades lebanon? that's the most obvious surprise in october that will change the landscape of the election

@biased I don’t like this option because something will happen in October and then everyone here will be arguing whether or not it is important enough to constant an October surprise. This needs a better resolution policy that defines who decides what is or isn’t (i.e. NYT calls it an October surprise in a not op-ed).

@mqudsi I agree with you about the subjective resolution of this market

@AliceFlowers @mods presumably freight is a typo for foreign?

yep

@biased Somewhat ambiguous what counts as something else vs "no surprise".

@ProjectVictory “Something else not listed here” means there is a surprise, but (as is the nature of surprises) it isn’t listed as an option.

@biased surprise is a very relative thing.

@ProjectVictory Indeed. This is an argument against this market