I have no idea how, in one day, this market shifted from No Surprise to Major Hurricane, even though the hurricane had been expected for at least a week and was already well known to be a big one

@GGckr Charitably, I think this includes NC which was more of a surprise and still sort of developing as a story, and it’s a swing state.

@GGckr Florida is not a swing state.

@NicoDelon That's true too, which makes the bump even weirder.

@biased this is not a good option. There should be a standard ‘Other’ option. People keep adding answers but no one who is betting on this one then gets shares when new ones are added.

EDIT: I understand why the option is available but this still seems suboptimal.

Yeah until the mods ruined it and said we couldn't add any more options 😡

@NicoDelon Other is only available when a single option resolves true. If multiple options can resolve true, then it is not available. Try it

@biased I know that but didn’t know this one could resolve to multiple options. Now that makes more sense.

In hindsight, could this get changed to something like "Other natural disaster?" I basically just intended for it to be any disaster other than "major hurricane landfall in a swing state."

@SaviorofPlant Florida surely should count here right? Most websites are listing it as a swing state on the margins and it's the subject of many polls, even if it might not end up particularly close.

@benshindel I don’t think that’s accurate that most sites list it as a swing state. There are 7 states that everyone recognizes as swing states.

@benshindel Florida is not really a swing state anymore.

@NicoDelon I am told it is the swinging state. 😉

@CryptoNeoLiberalist in the Villages, yes. 😂

@mods please n/a "Something else not listed here"

@mods don't n/a something else not listed here I want my sweet sweet mama

@nikki We do not n/a here. @mods You can ignore it.

There's 100 people who traded on it, it's the most contested option on this market. I'm reluctant to resolve it N/A.

I removed the option the option to add new answers which the creator planned to do anyways before they left the site. (Technically I toggled it so only the creator can add answers, but that doesn't really make a difference here).

So now this option can work properly, because people will not be able to add the unexpected event as an answer after the fact.

I'm closing all my positions in this market. This is not a well run question; "October Surprise" is too nebulous a concept and the market creator is not providing needed clarity.

Here is the November surprise some of us are cooking up for all of you!

FWIW, mainstream media does not appear to consider anything that has occurred to date to constitute an October surprise (I personally agree, but am not invested). This headline is from yesterday.

@mqudsi I actually saw a Politico article that called seemingly EVERYTHING that happened to date an "October Surprise."

@Marnix that’s Politico for you.

What’s the precise resolution criteria?

@AliceFlowers

@BlueDragon We’ve all been asking that.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@BlueDragon When I see it, you all will know.