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Unexpectedly high GDP number.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/26/us-gdp-grew-at-a-4point9percent-annual-pace-in-the-third-quarter-better-than-expected.html

U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected

GDP was expected to increase at a 4.7% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate.

MBAN DD Team 7

Agree and I have made same bet(Yes).

In September 2023, the majority of Federal Reserve officials anticipated another rate hike, with the decision dependent on upcoming inflation trends. Their minutes revealed that while some officials believe there won't be further increases, others believe one more hike would be appropriate. In September, the Federal Reserve maintained its lending rate, observing economic data to gauge the US economy's reaction to previous hikes. Due to 11 rate hikes since March 2022, there's uncertainty about their impact on the economy. The upcoming monetary policy meeting might pause rate hikes, with a possible hike in December based on economic insights. The minutes also showed a general consensus that rates might stay high for longer. The bond market reacted with increasing US Treasury yields, impacting loan rates and M&A costs. The central bank's stance focuses on balancing the potential risks of inflation with economic activity.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20230920.htm

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/economy/fed-minutes-september-meeting/index.html

September 20, 2023: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

https://manifold.markets/bigmac/will-the-federal-open-market-commit-e2fa4f1075a6?r=YmlnbWFj

Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raise the federal fund rate at the next meeting on November 1st, 2023?

18% chance. This question seeks to predict whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide to increase the federal funds rate following its meeting scheduled for October 31 - November 1, 2023. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserves to other depository institutions overnight. It is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to modulate economic growth and inflation. Resolution Criteria: The resolution of this question will be based on the official announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the federal funds rate, which is typically released in a statement shortly after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The question will resolve as "Yes" if the FOMC announces an increase in the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the meeting on November 1, 2023. Conversely, the question will resolve as "No" if the FOMC either decides to maintain the federal funds rate or to lower it. Official statements from the Federal Reserve, especially the release detailing the monetary policy decisions from the FOMC meeting, will serve as the primary source for resolution.

Arb

The Federal Reserve's main objectives in regulating interest rates are to reduce inflation and to increase employment, respectively. Just this past September 20th the Fed announced that it would stop raising interest rates. But Fortune (2023) pointed out that some policymakers believe that the current economic boom in employment far exceeded expectations and do not rule out the continuation of interest rate hikes in December of this year. Therefore, in 2023 the Fed chose to continue to raise interest rates, which is very possible.

Reference: https://fortune.com/2023/10/14/fed-looks-set-to-hold-rates-steady-but-hikes-still-possible/

The Fed looks set to hold interest rates steady next month, but there is ‘a very substantial risk’ it will make further increases later

The Fed looks set to hold interest rates steady next month, but there is ‘a very substantial risk’ it will make further increases later

Probably not. They backed off after banking crisis. The bond market is spooked. Regardless of whether they should raise rates they probably wont. It’s a dicey situation which could be solved (in the mind of central bankers) by leaving rates where they are for a while without a drastic change in policy. my opinion on this would change if inflation stats came out showing surprisingly high inflation though.

@Puggy surprise increase in job openings yesterday caused the S&P to dip on fears of a rate hike, so it's definitely not farfetched.

12 pro one more hike this year vs 7 against:
https://youtu.be/rqlVjLpYNMA?si=RHJXWqmdUFex1x85&t=757

lmao, tyvm. quite better already

Are participants here aware that Fed Funds futures are pricing this outcome at ~25% currently? Shouldn't, at least in vague theory, these kinds of bets here follow what big boys are punting? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-bowman-says-more-us-rate-hikes-likely-will-be-needed-2023-08-05/

Fed's Bowman says more US rate hikes likely will be needed

The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.