Will there be another US Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of 2023?
Jan 1

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MattLashofSullivan avatar
Matt Lashof-Sullivanpredicts YES

Unexpectedly high GDP number.


YasuhiroMizoguchi avatar
Yasuhiro Mizoguchi

MBAN DD Team 7

Agree and I have made same bet(Yes).

In September 2023, the majority of Federal Reserve officials anticipated another rate hike, with the decision dependent on upcoming inflation trends. Their minutes revealed that while some officials believe there won't be further increases, others believe one more hike would be appropriate. In September, the Federal Reserve maintained its lending rate, observing economic data to gauge the US economy's reaction to previous hikes. Due to 11 rate hikes since March 2022, there's uncertainty about their impact on the economy. The upcoming monetary policy meeting might pause rate hikes, with a possible hike in December based on economic insights. The minutes also showed a general consensus that rates might stay high for longer. The bond market reacted with increasing US Treasury yields, impacting loan rates and M&A costs. The central bank's stance focuses on balancing the potential risks of inflation with economic activity.



DequanGao avatar
Dequan Gaobought Ṁ50 of YES

The Federal Reserve's main objectives in regulating interest rates are to reduce inflation and to increase employment, respectively. Just this past September 20th the Fed announced that it would stop raising interest rates. But Fortune (2023) pointed out that some policymakers believe that the current economic boom in employment far exceeded expectations and do not rule out the continuation of interest rate hikes in December of this year. Therefore, in 2023 the Fed chose to continue to raise interest rates, which is very possible.

Reference: https://fortune.com/2023/10/14/fed-looks-set-to-hold-rates-steady-but-hikes-still-possible/

Puggy avatar
Puggybought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Probably not. They backed off after banking crisis. The bond market is spooked. Regardless of whether they should raise rates they probably wont. It’s a dicey situation which could be solved (in the mind of central bankers) by leaving rates where they are for a while without a drastic change in policy. my opinion on this would change if inflation stats came out showing surprisingly high inflation though.

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballbought Ṁ45 of YES

@Puggy surprise increase in job openings yesterday caused the S&P to dip on fears of a rate hike, so it's definitely not farfetched.

ZicoVerona avatar
Zicobought Ṁ65 of YES

12 pro one more hike this year vs 7 against:

SirCryptomind avatar
SirCryptomindbought Ṁ100 of YES
Arb avatar
Arbsold Ṁ9 of NO

lmao, tyvm. quite better already

Arb avatar
Arbbought Ṁ12 of NO

Are participants here aware that Fed Funds futures are pricing this outcome at ~25% currently? Shouldn't, at least in vague theory, these kinds of bets here follow what big boys are punting? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html