As shown by number of unique humans on Worldcoin/World ID sign-ups at https://worldcoin.org/home
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🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,319 | |
2 | Ṁ305 | |
3 | Ṁ288 | |
4 | Ṁ270 | |
5 | Ṁ262 |
Resolved this as soon as I woke up on September 1st. Not sure what the general etiquette is in regards to timezones? I'm in Australia so September 1st for me is a bit earlier than for most.
In this case it was clear the question would resolve as no regardless but had the numbers been much closer I'm not sure what would've been the best course of action. Any feedback is appreciated.
@JonathanRay That's an interesting opinion, but it doesn't have anything to do with this market really...
@JonathanRay That was my first thought, but it turns out Worldcoin doesn’t use biometrics for crypto auth. They use a biometric hash to establish unique personhood, then discard the underlying biometric data. Matthew Green’s analysis: https://blog.cryptographyengineering.com/2023/08/21/some-rough-impressions-of-worldcoin/
I don't see this recommended as related so I'll drop this here:
https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-worldcoin-report-a-billion-use
Pause for verifications in one target country (Kenya), unknown how long that will be. 53 million people they will have trouble eyeballing. https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/2/23817147/kenya-worldcoin-suspended-sam-altman-eyeball-scanning
@Alfie Dunno, I just think it's one of those controversial questions where people buy in heavily on both sides. A bunch of going up and down triggers Manifold's "trending" algorithm.
I'm firmly on the NO side, as I think the launch went rather poorly and we'll see the temporary spike of interest drop off. Still only ~300 orbs in circulation. That's the key number to keep track of.
@VitorBosshard In fact, I think that's a really interesting question, so I made a market:
https://manifold.markets/VitorBosshard/will-worldcoin-have-1000-active-orb?r=Vml0b3JCb3NzaGFyZA
Using @GN19's number of 2168500 from 11 days ago...
Right now it is 2229370.
2229370 - 2168500 = 60,780 in ~11 days.
And still about 1 per second
@JubileeYoung It pings the backend regularly at least, doesn't just increase number randomly on frontend
I think yes is undervalued. The website counter shows a 1 user/second increase. They currently show 2,122,000 users— extrapolating to the end of august implies they will have 4,800,400 users. In order to miss the target of 3 million users they need a slowdown to 0.3 users/second or slower for the entire month. While it’s possible they are exaggerating growth, given the backing of influential figures such as Sam Altman it seems unlikely.
(Disclaimer: I don’t like the idea of worldcoin)
@whalelang the ticking website counter is almost certainly a gimmick, not an actual reflection of signups: if you leave the page open, the rate decreases over time, and the browser console doesn't show any network requests fetching updated user counts (or a websocket that could be used for this). I haven't dug in to see exactly what's happening but I suspect the page just has one number, updated periodically, that controls the value where the rate starts to decrease.
Based on my squinting at the more significant digits in the number over the course of days, I think this market is too high. I guess I'll go ahead and put a bit more mana where my mouth is!
@jcb I also haven't seen a network activity at first, but then left the page open for some time and it does send the requests
@rpominov Interface is just so bloated it feels like they're mining bitcoin in javascript off me.