Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024?
Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024?
28
1kṀ17kresolved Oct 4
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Vuhledar within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.
If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the town is fully under Russian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the town was on the last 24 hours of 2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.