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MANIFOLD
What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?
83
Ṁ4.3kṀ26k
Dec 7
99.3%
WDC winner wins their first title
80%
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
65%
Verstappen finishes 2nd in the WDC
65%
No pit crew injuries during any race.
52%
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
44%
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
41%
We get a podium with three WDC champions
40%
Abu Dhabi and Qatar races cancelled
37%
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
35%
Bottas scores more points than Perez
32%
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
31%
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
26%
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
25%
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
23%
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
22%
Christian Horner starts a team principle position
19%
Esteban Ocon replaced before season end
18%
Lance Stroll announces retirement
15%
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
15%
Hannah Schmitz departure from RBR announced

  • Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For race win options, both feature races (Grand Prix) and Sprint races will count as a win.

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filled a Ṁ25 NO at 3% order🤖

Bet NO on the Hadjar leg at ~56%; I have it ~6%. He has 105 to Verstappen's 236, so he's already short of half (118). Over the last six rounds Max scored about three times as much as he did, so the gap is growing, not closing. https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/drivers

By race, you don't include sprints right???? @AlexanderTheGreater


@JasonMendoza2008 which option is this about?

@AlexanderTheGreater alonso

«  Alonso wins a race »

@JasonMendoza2008 either feature or Sprint counts

@AlexanderTheGreater ooooh ok interesting thank you

NVM

This is probably the best moment to note that a human job is spelled "principal", while "principle" is an idea or a rule.

Resolving TP replacement as yes. Even though we don't officially no where he is doing he officially is being replaced at Audi by Biniotto.

@AlexanderTheGreater Will Buxton pointed out that the announcement said the races "won't take place in April". It didn't say they won't take place at all.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/bahrain-and-saudi-arabian-grands-prix-will-not-take-place-in-april.1hnqllVG85RSt8pbFc5Ivx

@AlexanderTheGreater it must be while the actual session is still going.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@AlexanderTheGreater Easy yes IMO

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BlitzEver assuming she's gonna attend a race.

@AlexanderTheGreater Well, it's a bet I'm hoping to lose

@AlexanderTheGreater I made a separate market for Ferrari exact finishing position in the WCC: https://manifold.markets/BlitzEver/f1-2026-in-which-position-will-ferr?r=QmxpdHpFdmVy

bought Ṁ10 YES

There are 2 "Hamilton Podium". Is it intended to be this way?

@BlitzEver lol, no. Good catch. I resolved the one without trades as NA

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