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MANIFOLD
What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?
71
Ṁ3.9kṀ18k
Dec 7
85%
WDC winner wins their first title
79%
Kim Kardashian shown on F1TV in Ferrari garage during main race or qualifying broadcast
69%
Esteban Ocon replaced before season end
69%
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
68%
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
68%
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
67%
Abu Dhabi and Qatar races cancelled
55%
No pit crew injuries during any race.
55%
Hannah Schmitz departure from RBR announced
54%
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
53%
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
52%
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
51%
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
45%
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
41%
Bottas scores more points than Perez
41%
WDC winner wins it by 10 points or less
37%
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
36%
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
30%
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
28%
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom

  • Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For race win options, both feature races (Grand Prix) and Sprint races will count as a win.

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By race, you don't include sprints right???? @AlexanderTheGreater


@JasonMendoza2008 which option is this about?

@AlexanderTheGreater alonso

«  Alonso wins a race »

@JasonMendoza2008 either feature or Sprint counts

@AlexanderTheGreater ooooh ok interesting thank you

NVM

This is probably the best moment to note that a human job is spelled "principal", while "principle" is an idea or a rule.

Resolving TP replacement as yes. Even though we don't officially no where he is doing he officially is being replaced at Audi by Biniotto.

@AlexanderTheGreater Will Buxton pointed out that the announcement said the races "won't take place in April". It didn't say they won't take place at all.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/bahrain-and-saudi-arabian-grands-prix-will-not-take-place-in-april.1hnqllVG85RSt8pbFc5Ivx

@AlexanderTheGreater it must be while the actual session is still going.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@AlexanderTheGreater Easy yes IMO

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BlitzEver assuming she's gonna attend a race.

@AlexanderTheGreater Well, it's a bet I'm hoping to lose

@AlexanderTheGreater I made a separate market for Ferrari exact finishing position in the WCC: https://manifold.markets/BlitzEver/f1-2026-in-which-position-will-ferr?r=QmxpdHpFdmVy

bought Ṁ10 YES

There are 2 "Hamilton Podium". Is it intended to be this way?

@BlitzEver lol, no. Good catch. I resolved the one without trades as NA

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