Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?
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Public Health
H5N1 Bird Flu
COVID
Pandemic
Birds
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Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
2% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will there be 500 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in ther US during 2025?
8% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
1% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
3% chance
How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?
How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?
72
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
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https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/12/the-cows-in-the-coal-mine.html

https://polymarket.com/event/bird-flu-pandemic-before-august-2025?tid=1735560519385

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0180

Estimated or confirmed cases? (Big difference)

@Siebe wow yeah in the first 4 months of the H1N1 pandemic, there were 3 million estimated cases and 43,677 confirmed cases. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3375879/

I think estimated cases is a better metric, as testing capacity is quite strained in a pandemic.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@ahalekelly Do we have an official estimate for the number of cases in 2024?

.

Like JGY said, 66 confirmed H5 cases in 2024, I can't find any estimates of the number of unconfirmed cases.

In humans or in avians?

@willMay Humans

People are also trading

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
2% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will there be 500 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in ther US during 2025?
8% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
1% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
3% chance
How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?
How many human cases of H5N1 in the US will there be by the end of 2025?
72
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
1% chance
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