Conditional on ASI, what will happen to US consumer prices?

Question

Assume that by Dec. 31, 2035, an AI system exists that is generally considered superintelligent relative to humans across economically relevant cognitive tasks, and assume human civilization and US government statistics still exist.

This market resolves based on the annualized change in US CPI-U All Items over the five calendar years after the first year in which ASI exists.

For example, if ASI first exists in 2031, resolve using CPI from Jan. 2032 to Jan. 2037.

Use BLS CPI-U All Items, or the closest successor series if CPI-U is discontinued.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Severe deflation: CPI falls by more than 10%/year, followed by Moderate deflation: CPI falls by 2% to 10%/year and Rough price stability: CPI changes between -2% and +2%/year are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Jun 27, 2026).

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