related to Elon Musk's prediction that money will be obsolete by 2036 due to AI-driven abundance, but added 5 more years since Elon's predictions tend to be off by ~50% for timelines

assume people still exist

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, as of January 1, 2042, having $10,000,000 USD (or the inflation-adjusted equivalent in 2026 purchasing power, or equivalent personal financial wealth if fiat currencies are obsolete) provides little to no material lifestyle advantage over having zero personal financial wealth. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

To resolve this question, the market creator will host a public poll on Manifold (or its successor platform) in January 2042 asking: "Does having $10M+ in personal wealth provide a material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?"

• YES resolution: If a simple majority (>50%) of voters agree that there is little or no material lifestyle advantage (e.g., due to post-scarcity, AI-driven universal abundance, or the total obsolescence of money).

• NO resolution: If a majority of voters agree that having $10M+ still provides a significant material lifestyle advantage (e.g., superior access to prime real estate, advanced healthcare, computing power, energy, or luxury goods/services).

• Fallback: If the platform is no longer operational or a poll cannot be reliably conducted, the creator will resolve the market in good faith based on the prevailing consensus of academic, economic, and mainstream journalistic coverage regarding global material post-scarcity in 2041.

Background

In a July 2026 interview with The Economist, Elon Musk predicted that money would become obsolete by 2036. He argued that artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics will usher in an era of "universal high income" and extreme physical abundance, making the traditional exchange of currency for goods and services redundant.

Skeptics and economists counter that absolute resource scarcity (such as prime physical land, energy, raw materials, and computing infrastructure) will continue to exist, keeping wealth highly relevant. This market tests a delayed timeline five years past Musk's original 2036 prediction to see if AI-driven abundance will successfully decouple material lifestyle quality from personal financial wealth by 2041.