Resolution criteria

Each sub-question in this market will resolve independently based on the following criteria:

• Will Anthropic's Q4 2027 GAAP revenue exceed OpenAI's by >20%? Resolves YES if official corporate updates, audited statements, or reputable financial reporting confirm that Anthropic's GAAP revenue for Q4 2027 exceeds OpenAI's GAAP revenue for Q4 2027 by more than 20.0% (i.e., Anthropic GAAP Revenue > 1.20 × OpenAI GAAP Revenue). Resolves NO otherwise, or if verified GAAP revenue figures for both entities cannot be confirmed by June 30, 2028.

• Will Anthropic or OpenAI report positive GAAP operating income in any quarter of 2027? Resolves YES if either Anthropic or OpenAI reports positive GAAP operating income in any fiscal quarter of 2027 (Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4), according to official disclosures or reliable financial reporting. Resolves NO otherwise, or if quarter-by-quarter GAAP profitability data remains unconfirmed by June 30, 2028.

• Will a lab other than OpenAI or Anthropic lead the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 30 consecutive days in 2027? Resolves YES if a model created by any laboratory/organization other than OpenAI or Anthropic holds the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 30 consecutive calendar days during 2027. Resolves NO otherwise.

• Will any single AI lab hold the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 70 consecutive days during 2027? Resolves YES if models from any single AI lab continuously occupy the #1 rank on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 70 or more consecutive calendar days within calendar year 2027. Resolves NO otherwise.

Background

• Artificial Analysis: Artificial Analysis publishes independent evaluations and benchmark leaderboards tracking top frontier language models across reasoning, coding, math, and knowledge tasks.

• Financial Reporting Context: OpenAI and Anthropic are private companies that are not required to publish standardized quarterly SEC filings. Financial resolution for revenue and operating income options will rely on verified corporate disclosures or reports from mainstream financial news outlets (e.g., The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Information).