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Gigacasting

Do you trust Sam Altman?22%

Alex K. Chen

Will Peter Thiel's Horvath DNAm age be higher than his chronological age?18%

Alex K. Chen

It will turn out that Sam Altman is the Second Coming of Christ (or is the best person to adapt himself to the role)8%

GeorgeVii

Did Sam Trabucco lose >$1B in a single trade during his time at Alameda?64%

Alex K. Chen

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?70%

Ronny Fernandez

EXTREMELY LITERAL JUDGING: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)5%

Arcgis

Will Oppenheimer bring back the fedora?23%

Alex K. Chen

Will Aubrey de Grey be determined to have a higher concentration of microplastics in his brain than Peter Thiel?33%

Ryan Greenblatt

Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years?15%

Ryan Greenblatt

Will I think it would have been ex-post better for Redwood Research to dissolve?17%

Daniel Eth

Will Eric Drexler ever win a Nobel Prize?13%

Nathan Young

Who will Nate Silver get hired by?

Yoav

Will Scott Alexander blog about Silicon Valley Bank this year?13%

Lars Doucet

Will the Unstable Diffusion team have their stripe funding interrupted?37%

Matthew Barnett

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?52%

Nuño Sempere

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?9%

Jack

Will Mike Alfred's claims about First Republic Bank (FRC) prove accurate?4%

Ryan Greenblatt

Will I think it would have been ex-post better to try to get a job at Anthropic instead of working at Redwood Research?34%

Alex K. Chen

Will Patrick Finley win an Emergent Ventures grant?50%

E McNeill

Will Nate Silver join or found an organization associated with EA, rationalists, or prediction markets?25%