@AlexHoltCohan Could you please clarify your resolution criteria? If West receives a single vote (popular, not electoral college), does this resolve YES? This seems to be trivially guaranteed if he doesn't pull out of the race. If OTOH you're asking whether he'll receive any electoral college vote, while not guaranteed, this is overwhelmingly unlikely. More crucially, how will you determine whether he took votes away from either party?

@NicoDelon if he get a percentage of the vote that shifts the balance of the two parties bases in a significant way like if he gets 5% and Biden and Trumps shares go down by a total of 5% or he creates voters in the way that Obama did or he consolidates a follow ing and gives it to another candidate.