I ran into henry at Manifest and he mentioned he wanted to blog more, then followed it up about how unlike everyone else he was going to actually follow through. I said he should make a prediction market on it, but he didn't have his cell phone so I made it for him. People who follow and know him on Twitter will better know if he will follow through or not.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Henri (@arithmoquine) publishes a new blog post on his personal blog before July 1, 2025. The publication date must be clearly indicated on the blog post. If no new blog post is published by that date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Henri, known as @arithmoquine on Twitter, expressed his intention to increase his blogging activity during a conversation at Manifest. He emphasized his commitment to following through on this goal, distinguishing himself from others who might not. This market was created to track whether he will fulfill this commitment.

Considerations

• The resolution depends on the publication of a new blog post on Henri's personal blog.

• It has to actually be good.

• The publication date must be clearly indicated to confirm it was posted before July 1, 2025.

• If Henri does not publish a new blog post by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."