TLDR/disclaimer: This market is a fun and slightly silly experiment with gamification of learning. On the other hand, if people can open markets here on whether their date will go well then why not open a market on a game most of you haven't heard of played by people most of you don't know, right? Everyone is welcome to trade here, and you can probably do better than a coinflip but don't stake your manna on this!
The game
Brassbound Adamantine Dawn (BAD from here on) is a tabletop miniatures wargame that uses Legos. I am starting a BAD campaign with my family. We have three factions (colours assigned arbitrarily with no particular meaning intended):
Green, a sclerotic bureaucracy struggling to get dozens of special interest groups to agree on anything. Player age: 52
Blue, a neighbouring country, expected to be some kind of military dictatorship which always insists that it's the good guys, but who knows, he might surprise us. Player age: little kid
Red, A rationalist rebellion including citizens of both Green and Blue nations. Aaaand... that brings me to why I'm creating this weird market. You see, where the Green governs by committee and Blue (probably) governs by fiat, Red use forecasting to inform decisions-- to include prediction markets. So what better way to model that (and teach/learn about Manifold) than to actually open a prediction market before every battle? Player age: teen.
Back story
Green was conducting military exercises. The navigational system on one of their self-propelled guns malfunctioned, resulting in that unit straying across the border into Blue territory. Blue, unaware of the exercises and hating the Greens to begin with, welcomed the visitor with an artillery barrage that completely disabled it. Green mounted an rescue mission, which Blue is interpreting it as the second wave of an invasion. Red, being a newly minted insurgency, currently has no vehicles except trucks but they see the Green/Blue confrontation as an opportunity to change that.
The theatre of operations
In the attached satellite photo of the battlefield at the bottom of this question, the green and blue boxes represent areas where Green and Blue will place their respective units except where this would place them within 8 lego studs of a Strategic Point. Red can place their puny little insurgent units wherever they want. The circles represent Strategic Points. The building in the upper right allows any soldiers that enter it to control the nearby drawbridge. If the transmitter on the roof is destroyed, the bridge is permanently stuck in whatever state it was in at that time. The blue thing that looks like a river is in fact a river and is impassable except via the things that look like bridges, which are in fact bridges. The other stuff laying around the map is terrain which is mostly rough but the taller parts are impassable.
Scoring
Green and Blue, version 0.7 vanilla rules: "At the end of the round, when all units have activated or passed, the player with the most units within [8 lego studs] of each Strategic Point controls it. If there is a tie, the player with the most squads [i.e. non-vehicle units] within [8 lego studs] controls that Strategic Point. Award 1 Victory Point for each Strategic Point each player controls. The Player with the most Victory Points at the end of the game wins!"
For Red: in addition to above, score a victory point for every disabled vehicle you repair and remove from the battlefield (including the disabled SPG in the middle which ceases to be a Strategic Objective if you remove it). To attempt to repair and take over a disabled vehicle, get soldiers within [8 lego studs] of it and roll 2d8 with no armor save against it-- if they hit it, they succeed in repairing in comandeering it, at the cost of one soldier figurine (who leaves the squad in order to drive the vehicle). Squads which are down to one soldier cannot commandeer vehicles.
This Market
The only resolution criteria for this market are how I report things went, I have influence on how things will go, and what's worse, I might trade in this market. On the other hand, I promise to bet based on how I genuinely think it will go, I can very easly be wrong about how things will go, and I will do my very best to apply the official game rules (downloadable from the link at the beginning) and the above house rules in as self-consistent a manner as I possibly can.
1,000
We finally completed the placement phase, whew. The battle will commence at the crack of dawn^H^H^H noon