TLDR/disclaimer: This market is a fun and slightly silly experiment with gamification of learning. On the other hand, if people can open markets here on whether their date will go well then why not open a market on a game most of you haven't heard of played by people most of you don't know, right? Everyone is welcome to trade here (including myself and other players), and you can probably do better than a coinflip but don't stake manna life savings on this!

This may be resolved before the closing date if we manage to schedule the game before then. I will try to post updates after every move when we start playing, like last time.

The game

Brassbound Adamantine Dawn (BAD from here on) is a tabletop miniatures wargame that uses Legos. I am running a BAD campaign with my family. We have three factions (colours assigned arbitrarily with no particular meaning intended):

• Green, a sclerotic bureaucracy struggling to get dozens of special interest groups to agree on anything. Player age: 52

• Blue, a neighbouring country, expected to be some kind of military dictatorship which always insists that it's the good guys, but who knows, he might surprise us. Player age: little kid

• Red, A rationalist rebellion including citizens of both Green and Blue nations. Aaaand... that brings me to why I'm creating this weird market. You see, where the Green governs by committee and Blue (probably) governs by fiat, Red use forecasting to inform decisions-- to include prediction markets. So what better way to model that (and teach/learn about Manifold) than to actually open a prediction market before every battle? Player age: teen.
  

Story

The next day after battle #1. The green extraction team received intel that there is a massive Blue counter-offensive on the way and Blue already received some reinforcements. Green needs to retreat before he is overrun. Red has not had time to repair his captured vehicles but he did receive reinforcements from nearby towns and is lurking somewhere out there, maybe in the dense forest.

Loadout

Spending victory points

1 VP can be exchanged for 5 points worth of units. Unused VPs are banked for future battles. 

Green 

Must field all surviving units from the previous battle. May also spend VP on additional units.

Blue

Can field any number of surviving units from the previous battle. May also spend VP on additional units.

Red

As before, cannot field any vehicles except trucks. Can field any number of surviving units from the previous battle. May also spend VP on additional units as long as they are squads or trucks. (Don't worry, the captured tank and brassbound will be available in an upcoming battle).

House Rules

Diplomacy

Players can exchange units, victory points, and agreements to do or not do certain things during a battle. Nobody but the players is enforcing these agreements, however.

Missed shots.

The chart below will be followed. Near-miss means that if the target is behind cover, the cover takes damage. In addition, re-roll the near-miss dice against the closest unit (if any) with line of sight to the attacker (except indirect fire) and within S of the target regardless of who owns the unit. There can be a chain of near-misses (ricochets?) but a unit that has already been missed does not count as a closest unit for any subsequent near misses in the chain. 

Thick forest

Two or more trees within S of each other are a thick forest as is the area covered by their foliage. Small gaps in foliage are ignored. A unit whose middle is under the foliage is in the thick forest. Thick forest is rough terrain for squads. For vehicles, thick forest is rough terrain and becomes impassable at a depth of S from the edge of the foliage. Brassbound jump ability applies as for other impassable terrain but they cannot land on foliage. All units in the thick forest are behind cover. Forest breaks line of sight to anything in the open on the opposite side. In addition to the above movement restrictions they still have to physically fit between the tree trunks. 

Roll attacks against tree trunks as if they are unarmored vehicles but no D6 weapons can be used. It takes as many hits to destroy a tree as its diameter in pips. Destroying a tree removes its foliage and then lays it sideways in a direction facing away from the shot. Hitting the fallen tree again pulverizes it and removes it. 

If the active player accidentally breaks a tree while moving a unit, that unit's movement stops at that spot. If the unit is a squad, the active player must replace the tree. If the unit is a vehicle, 1d8 is rolled against both the tree and the vehicle. If the tree is not damaged, the active player must replace it, otherwise resolve it as though the vehicle attacked the tree.

If indirect fire from beneath trees results in a near-miss, those dice are re-rolled against units within S the firing unit instead of within S of the target.

Bridge

Roll attacks against specific pips on a bridge as if it was an unarmored vehicle but no D6 weapons can be used. Each hit results in a damage marker being placed on the targeted location. If more than one die hits, the active player chooses where the additional damage markers go. Units using the bridge cannot cross damage markers. A contiguous (diagonal counts) line of damage markers going all the way across the drivable surface of a bridge makes the bridge unusable and the players can destroy it in a cinematic manner.  

Veteran Status

A veteran pip can be spent once per battle to re-roll any die directly affecting the unit that has that pip (either as the active or the reactive player).

Retreat (specific to this battle)

Blue can retreat by crossing the edge of the map within their spawn zone. Green can retreat by crossing the left edge of the map. Red can retreat from any edge of the map, or (for guerilla squads only, see below) via the 'fade into the countryside ability'.

Guerilla tag (Red only)

If the controlling player chooses to spawn their guerilla unit within S (8 pips) of cover (in any direction), the player does not have to place the unit on the map nor tell the other players its location until the first time the unit moves. Guerillas may 'fade into the countryside' by retreating from any location that is within S of cover and closer to cover than to an enemy unit. Red can buy the guerilla tag for a squad by spending two veteran pips. This increases the unit's contribution to total army cost from 5 to 10.

Satchel Charge

A satchel charge is a single-use piece of equipment carried by a unit. The unit can use it up by placing a marker at their current location. It will explode at the start/end of the turn specified by the placing player (e.g. ” start of my second turn after this one” , ”end of green's next turn”). Roll 1d8 against every unit within S of the satchel charge. Roll an extra 1d8 to determine damage to structures and terrain-- remove that many pips of cover and/or place that many damage markers wherever the active player chooses within S of the explosion. Placing a satchel charge takes one action, so a unit needs to take that into account when they specify the timing on the charge if they wish to escape its blast radius. A satchel charge costs one veteran pip from the squad that will be carrying it.

Commandeering (Red only)

Any Red squad with at least one un-spent veteran pip or a guerilla keyword can use a 1d8 attack (no armor) against a destroyed vehicle in order to repair and take control of it from a distance of S. A successful commandeering costs one model from the originating squad (to pilot the vehicle). A squad with one model left cannot commandeer vehicles. A commandeered vehicle cannot attack, it can only move. A commandeered vehicle does not inherit any special abilities including veteran status. If a commandeered vehicle is destroyed, it cannot be commandeered again.

Scoring

All

The bridge near the middle of the map is a standard strategic point. If the bridge is destroyed it stops being a strategic point but the player who destroyed it gets 1 VP.

Green

1 VP for every surviving green unit that retreats. At the end of round 6, add 1 VP for every non-destroyed Green unit under Green player's control that is out of the forest on the left side of the map. These units are considered to have survived the encounter.

Blue

1 VP for every Green unit destroyed (by anybody). At the end of round 6, add 1 VP for every non-destroyed Blue unit that is out of the forest. These units are considered to have survived the encounter. At the end of round 6, all vehicles outside the forest on the left side of the map controlled by anybody other than Blue are considered to have been destroyed by blue

Red

1 VP for every commandeered vehicle that retreats from battle. At the end of round 6, add 1 VP for every Blue or Green vehicle (destroyed or not) that is in the thick forest as defined above. Commandeered vehicles count, but commandeered vehicles that have been destroyed again do not count for more than one point. Basically, a vehicle can only yield at most one VP for Red. At the end of round 6 all vehicles in the forest except commandeered vehicles that got destroyed a second time are considered to have been captured by Red.