Resolution criteria

The referendum concerns a reform of the Italian judicial system and will be held on March 22 and 23, 2026. This market resolves YES if both conditions are met:

1. Turnout exceeds 45%: Voter turnout among eligible voters in Italy reaches above 45%

2. "Yes" vote wins: The "yes" votes exceed "no" votes

Resolution will be determined by official results published by the Italian Ministry of Interior (https://www.interno.gov.it/) or the Court of Cassation following the referendum.

Note: The confirmatory constitutional referendum does not require a turnout quorum; absolute validity depends solely on whether "yes" votes exceed "no" votes among those who participate. This market adds an additional 45% turnout threshold as a condition.

Background

The referendum aims to revise Title II and Title IV of Part II of the Constitution of the Italian Republic. The reform proposes a structural reorganization of the judiciary, notably through the separation of career paths between judges and prosecutors, which would require an initial choice at the outset of a career and remove the capacity to switch roles thereafter.

The proposal from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing government comes with significant opposition from the national association of magistrates (ANM) and the center-left opposition. Around 117 constitutional scholars joined the anti-reform committee, including three presidents emeritus of the Constitutional Court of Italy, along with trade unions, anti-mafia associations, and environmental organizations.

Considerations

Polls suggest the referendum has a better chance of passing with high voter turnout, while right-wing voters may be less interested because the vote does not directly affect the government. With the Iran war monopolizing media attention, interest has waned in a referendum in which the outcome hinges on participation.