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13 Comments

29 Holders

58 Trades

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predicted NO

Resolved to NO, as the main part of layoffs is happening in April-May. And the early part of layoffs is less than 2K.

predicted YES

@AlborTholus Do you have evidence that this early part of the layoffs is less than 2K? They laid off a huge swath of recruiters. I could see it surpassing 2K.

predicted YES

For CA and NY (which will be a large chunk of the recruiting layoffs), Meta is required to publish WARN notices (here and here). They haven't yet as far as I can see. This market could resolve based on that, otherwise it's unlikely we'll publicly know the true volume.

predicted NO

Should I close the market now?..
On one hand we have announcement, but there is still some uncertainty.

predicted NO

@AlborTholus By close I mean stop accepting Trades. The resolution will be on the 18th.

predicted NO

@AlborTholus Made decision to close, as from now on it's not a prediction of what'll happen, but a battle of the official news interpretations.

Still will take some time to understand how to resolve. At least wait till tomorrow to hope for clear volumes of recruiting layoffs.

predicted NO

@AlborTholus I'm pretty sure that this should not be resolved as "NO" (if it is really "NO") until the date stated in the market description "2023-03-18". From the other hand I think that it can be resolved "YES" (if it is "YES") any time when it is completly clear that this has happened..

(Am afraid of the situation, that for example you resolve this market as NO on 2023-03-15, but on 2023-03-16 there are some other news that states that this actually happened)

predicted NO

@AlborTholus for the question should the maket be closed (not resolved, but closed) when some big event had happed around this market — personaly I don't know what is the correct (and expected) behaviour. Probably the "close" logic should be explicitly declared in the market description, so the people who trade know what to expect.

bought Ṁ75 of NO

Update on Meta’s Year of Efficiency | Meta (fb.com )

announced but only implementing over the next few months?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Charlie

> I’ve made the difficult decision to further reduce the size of our recruiting team. We will let recruiting team members know tomorrow whether they’re impacted.

So some of the recruiters will be fired until the date stated in this market '2023-03-18'.

> Resolves YES if:
> >=2000 Meta's full time employees gets laid off

So to resolve this market we need to know if the number of recruiters fired >= 2000 (I don't know, but I suppose that this is false) and if they are full time employees (I also don't know this, but I suppose that this is true)