https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7709590
We argue that previous analyses were based on a conservative analytic approach and failed to take into account the reductions in the IQ test variances at the end of the three-years’ training. When standard deviations of the initial test and 2nd retest were pooled in the calculation of the effect sizes, the experimental group’s performance was 10 IQ points higher on average than that of the control group. Further, with the properly defined measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence, the experimental group showed a 15 IQ points higher increase than the control group. We concluded that prolonged intensive training in creative problem-solving can lead to substantial and positive effects on intelligence during late adolescence (ages 18–19
I will not bet on this market. Determination might be subjective given ambiguity (but I will absolutely do my best to resolve reasonably).
Replications will only be considered if published by the end of 2025, UTC time.
EDIT: If I do not become aware of any replication attempts by the end of 2025, I intend to resolve this market N/A. I will try and leave some time (perhaps around a week) after this market closes for Manifold users to bring replication attempts to my attention.
1,000
3.00