Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Repeated random reduction of a number, and it's still 10 or more?
20
Ṁ100Ṁ918
resolved Apr 26
Resolved
NO

On the resolution date I will:

  1. Set the integer variable "n" to 320.

  2. Then use fairlyrandom to generate a random integer up to "n", and "n" will be assigned the value of this response. This step (step 2) will be repeated until 5 calls to fairlyrandom have been made.

  3. If "n" is now at least 10, I'll resolve to "Yes", otherwise to "No".

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ58
2Ṁ34
3Ṁ30
4Ṁ22
5Ṁ22
Sort by:

Fun market, consider making another one. same rules but starting n 500

@EstMtz 320 is the break even point for 5 flips, 640 is for 6 flips.

@AlanTennant So you think 40 is the break even point for 2 flips? If you reduce 40 twice, there's approximately a 55% chance that the result is lower than 10 / at most 9.

@4fa maybe it's not perfect

🤖

Not a valid request: No range specified. Try @FairlyRandom 10

"I'm @FairlyRandom and I answered 1"

🤖

Not a valid request: Max <= min is not allowed

🤖

@AlanTennant your random number is: 1

Salt: g03kv31ewf, round: 6058978 (signature b1116db29cd0f4357e04e0a58cdb173f73f113dff393eb5f26605d0496e3a4deae3352d97cfafb50a468e3cabe245f7205959acc8106efb1cee00237df0d16299d433d19e71033ddc39cc02b8eff79ac37f4e9b8201a5466cec926ce9b29afa8)

🤖

@AlanTennant you asked for a random integer between 1 and 3, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6058976 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6058978, salt: g03kv31ewf.

🤖

@AlanTennant your random number is: 3

Salt: r2333ur4e3, round: 6058975 (signature 927a611761f03523c90c2542a73b40e990bb0940fcc34ddf01e653fbedb89b53d2df843d4236514496515566aa4b5fd50e558c4e4e869327dc5a6583b63a54ddb00104752cf3cf9289b9e97807d8b739983af46612617bf9fc0440c9dc39cb0d)

🤖

@AlanTennant you asked for a random integer between 1 and 29, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6058973 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6058975, salt: r2333ur4e3.

🤖

@AlanTennant your random number is: 29

Salt: jtxetprsmgs, round: 6058973 (signature a76575a6872161006662601c6ef523ae1485746e44956dc4bee3c8f736576128120ed35c161796433a71c517bc176463135289e2a595d885121cb324682e1d543c8b9072dce9e99645c5822413891285d638b60076cc49daad1645f32db204eb)

🤖

@AlanTennant you asked for a random integer between 1 and 64, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6058971 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6058973, salt: jtxetprsmgs.

🤖

@AlanTennant your random number is: 64

Salt: xnrobwebpci, round: 6058970 (signature a7cf78d6cded70cfc49e95f20722b8b8da90f0e7e9892035e4fb55fe4b7d70898621fdb0a2d2e97629447e9b9167f3bf1766eb04929935a07374fd63f648b3698d12bb0d96a7ffdf44cf3245979722d3e71d019be4e32914b93d0bb37a8609d5)

🤖

@AlanTennant you asked for a random integer between 1 and 320, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6058968 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6058970, salt: xnrobwebpci.

reposted

Cool idea!

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 29% order

Just to confirm: if n drops below 10 before the 5th call, you will still resolve to "No", right?

bought Ṁ1 YES

@4fa Yes :) It cannot grow, so less than 10 on the 3rd lets say, guarantees less than 10 by the 5th. If fairlyrandom wont play ball in the eventuality of "fairlyrandom 1" then I'll just pretend it answered "1".