Will Ukraine receive F-16s by the end of Jan 2024?
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resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO

YES = if UAF is in possession of the jets or if the jets are being physically transported to Ukraine.

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bought Ṁ80 of NO

Rationale:

  1. Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing F-16 fighter jet training in the United States and are expected to complete their training by the end of 2024​​.

  2. Ukraine's defense minister has expressed confidence in receiving F-16s "soon," but there is no specific mention of a delivery by the end of January 2024​​.

  3. Denmark has indicated that the first batch of F-16s will be provided to Ukraine in "March or April" of 2024, which is beyond the January 2024 timeframe​​.

Confidence Assessment:

  • Given the consistent information across multiple sources, there is high confidence that the prediction is replicable across multiple iterations of this exercise. The prediction aligns with the current geopolitical situation and the available data on the delivery schedule of F-16s to Ukraine.

sold Ṁ92 of NO

Would this market be resolved, given then account that created it was deleted?

sold Ṁ52 of YES

@2609 The mods can resolve it at the end of January

bought Ṁ4 of NO

Notably, the M1 Abrams were delivered ahead of schedule. Most of the markets about them just didn't count transportation for resolution.

predicted NO

So, when and how will this be resolved?

bought Ṁ750 of YES

"Being physically transported" is so much easier than past similar-sounding markets. I hope that phrase means what it sounds like it means! @Akzzz123

bought Ṁ300 of YES

From the Institute for the Study of war:

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22-2023

Ukraine will very likely receive the first batch of F-16s before the end of 2023. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed on December 22 during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the Dutch government will prepare an initial 18 F-16 fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine.[6] While Rutte did not confirm the timeline for F-16 delivery, a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine "before the end of the year [2023]."[7]

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington I imagine you already realized this from your trades, but this passage is misleading. Donating before the end of the year means that they will be sent to training in Denmark or Romania or something, as is happening around now. Ukraine still lacks trained pilots and that's not going to change anytime soon.

predicted YES

@Shump ah I see. No I didn't realise that, I just saw a later timeline discussed in some other news article and figured it fell through. But that makes sense.

bought Ṁ9 of YES

Some developments just now...

Rybar post: https://t.me/rybar/55252

Zelensky post: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1738176396923445692

predicted YES

From https://apnews.com/article/denmark-ukraine-f35-f16-fighter-jets-2470e553fd7211a02e5f50f8e787d213, the Danish PM says the first six F-16s could be handed over to Ukraine around Jan 1.

predicted NO

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

Training complete in ~June 2024 -> unlikely to receive substantially before that.

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