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Rationale:
Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing F-16 fighter jet training in the United States and are expected to complete their training by the end of 2024.
Ukraine's defense minister has expressed confidence in receiving F-16s "soon," but there is no specific mention of a delivery by the end of January 2024.
Denmark has indicated that the first batch of F-16s will be provided to Ukraine in "March or April" of 2024, which is beyond the January 2024 timeframe.
Confidence Assessment:
Given the consistent information across multiple sources, there is high confidence that the prediction is replicable across multiple iterations of this exercise. The prediction aligns with the current geopolitical situation and the available data on the delivery schedule of F-16s to Ukraine.
"Being physically transported" is so much easier than past similar-sounding markets. I hope that phrase means what it sounds like it means! @Akzzz123
From the Institute for the Study of war:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22-2023
Ukraine will very likely receive the first batch of F-16s before the end of 2023. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed on December 22 during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the Dutch government will prepare an initial 18 F-16 fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine.[6] While Rutte did not confirm the timeline for F-16 delivery, a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16s to Ukraine "before the end of the year [2023]."[7]
@chrisjbillington I imagine you already realized this from your trades, but this passage is misleading. Donating before the end of the year means that they will be sent to training in Denmark or Romania or something, as is happening around now. Ukraine still lacks trained pilots and that's not going to change anytime soon.
@Shump ah I see. No I didn't realise that, I just saw a later timeline discussed in some other news article and figured it fell through. But that makes sense.
Some developments just now...
Rybar post: https://t.me/rybar/55252
Zelensky post: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1738176396923445692
From https://apnews.com/article/denmark-ukraine-f35-f16-fighter-jets-2470e553fd7211a02e5f50f8e787d213, the Danish PM says the first six F-16s could be handed over to Ukraine around Jan 1.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/
Training complete in ~June 2024 -> unlikely to receive substantially before that.
should be lower than this, with early meaning before June 2024: https://manifold.markets/c824/will-ukraine-get-f16-fighters-early
Arb - this market should be strictly lower than both the F-16 option at:https://manifold.markets/MartinModrak/which-nonrussian-fighter-jet-will-b
as well as https://manifold.markets/MartinModrak/will-ukraine-receive-nonrussian-fig
