🏅 Top traders

It is July 1 in Ukraine. The current status of the Wagner group seems unclear and there are mixed reports in the media. I am inclined to resolve this NO since the sources shared mention that they've been told by the Russian MoD to stop their operations in Ukraine. However, whether Wagner Group has followed those orders is not clear and not widely reported on.

I will wait for a few more days in case anyone wants to present evidence to argue that Wagner group stopped operating in Ukraine before July 1st.

I intend to resolve this market by the end of July 3rd (Ukraine time zone)

DOD: No Changes in Russian, U.S. Strategic Posture After Wagner Security Situation > U.S. Department of Defense > Defense Department News

’Nothing has changed.’ Wagner Group still recruiting fighters throughout Russia for war against Ukraine. — Meduza

Maybe it's only part of a negotiation and they will resume in a few days, so No is still possible. But for now, according to today's news, it's more likely to be a Yes resolution. (edit switched yes and no)

@Zardoru I flipped by bet as soon as I saw the story you shared!! Thanks for the tip!!

@Zardoru wait did u read what you posted? u mean it should be a yes resolution.

@higherLEVELING sorry mixed yes and no

@Zardoru I may have missed something but today's news does not look sufficient to me to resolve this as YES because the reports don't say that Wagner Group has stopped operating. The reports say that they've been told to stop operating by the Russian MoD but it's not clear whether they've stopped operating or not. The quote by Ukraine's spy chief also doesn't seem to be validated as yet.

The market still seems priced high to me so I may have missed something Please let me know if that is the case.

Here's a response from a Pentagon press secretary.

He added that it was “too early to tell right now” in what capacity the Wagner Group will operate for the duration of the war.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1786135/Wagner-group-ukraine-war-Putin

Wagner Group ‘still fighting in Ukraine’ despite Putin kicking mercenaries out

When Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin announced his military company’s retreat from Bakhmut in May, he pledged to leave behind some of his fighters who had had a “main role” in taking the eastern Ukrainian city, so they could aid the Russian Armed Forces.

@Akzzz123 Well, don't resolve too soon. Of course nobody can have 100% certainty of what happen in a war.

Some Wagner units may have been fighting until recently and are still present in Ukraine, either leaving or joining Russian Army.

But the main news from today, Reuter article I linked earlier with declarations from head of Wagner and from the Russian Ministry of Defense made it clear that Wagner is no longer operating in Ukraine.

<< Kartapolov said that after Prigozhin's refusal to sign the contracts he had been told that his mercenaries would no longer fight in Ukraine and thus would not receive state money.>>

Mercenaries usually don't fight when they are not paid.

Anyway I prefer to leave market, than to try to outguess market creator.

https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-group-off-battlefield-ukraine-military-spy-chief-kyrylo-budanov/

Wagner is off the battlefield, Ukraine’s spy chief says

Mutinous mercenary group ‘will no longer participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine,’ head of military intelligence says.

The Wagner men have until 7.1 to sign their new contracts with the Ministry of Defense so almost certainly they will still be operating until then.

@BTE Former Wagner men will operate under Russian army contract, Wagner itself is out.

@Zardoru Yes, but starting tomorrow, not today.

@BTE they are not fighting today

@Zardoru I think that is speculation, but I am definitely hedging heavily here:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-prigozhin-was-told-he-would-no-longer-fight-ukraine-lawmaker-2023-06-29/

From the Washington Post:

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that Wagner would continue operating in Mali and the Central African Republic...

It appears that the group’s role in Ukraine may be over, however, and it will no longer have access to Russian state support."

So if Wagner settles their dispute amicably and turns back around for the front, but doesn't arrive by the end of the month, how does that resolve?

@AndrewHartman they did not take all the people out for the marching. Some part of them is still in Ukraine. So It doesn't matter if today's actors don't return in time. There is presence.

@KongoLandwalker The market also requires them to stop operating in Ukraine entirely and temporary ones don't count, so even if all of them left Ukraine for a couple of days it shouldn't matter. We're currently in a temporary halt of operations anyway since they were preparing for future missions (one of which just happened to be a trip to Moscow).

@KongoLandwalker Presence is not operating.

@AndrewHartman Are there any reliable sources saying that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine? Prigozhin has himself said they plan to return to the frontlines once this is over.

How do this and your related questions resolve if Wagner group openly switch sides? How about if they end up acting as unofficial anti-Russian partisans?

@Lorxus If these scenarios take place inside Ukraine, it will NOT satisfy the criteria to resolve YES, since it would mean they are still operating in Ukraine.

@Akzzz123 Do you count Russian-occupied territory as being "in Ukraine"? What about the LPR/DPR and the Crimean peninsula?

@Lorxus I am defining Ukraine's territory as pre-2014 Ukraine minus Crimea.