Background:

In the discussion here, I claimed that there is a significant discrepancy between the early cases data in the final WHO report when compared to early peer-reviewed studies from China, SCMP leak.

Source: https://archive.is/yNxMm

@PeterMillerc030 responded by saying that these numbers are made up by Gilles Demaneuf (DRASTIC member who performed this analysis) and that there is no discrepancy.

I have responded by pointing out that Peter's comment is factually incorrect primarily because he doesn't make the distinction between confirmed and diagnosed cases. You can look at the discussion and validate the arguments by referring to the primary sources.

Resolution:

Resolves based on my subjective assessment of the weighted consensus of Manifold users (More weight given to users based on a mix of my/community's assessment of their trustworthiness, calibration scores, and/or quality of arguments).
I do not intend to rush to a resolution, so if there's a significant objection to resolve the question by any such user with high weight, then I will wait for their concerns to be reasonably addressed before resolving.

I wlil not trade on this but I will evaluate the evidence presented/ present my own arguments.

If my resolution is deemed controversial, I will very likely delegate the resolution to other user(s).

Update 2: Clarified the market description and extended the end date.